Battle for the Warta Line
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 13
Defender wins (Polish): 15
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1025 | 50% | 2024-06-23 | Lost |
| 1018 | 895 | 67% | 2024-06-19 | Won |
| 1149 | 1130 | 53% | 2024-06-08 | Lost |
| 991 | 1033 | 44% | 2024-06-01 | Won |
| 999 | 1045 | 43% | 2023-08-19 | Lost |
| 957 | 913 | 56% | 2023-02-02 | Lost |
| 954 | 1061 | 35% | 2022-12-22 | Won |
| 913 | 957 | 44% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1204 | 46% | 2022-03-23 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1125 | 47% | 2021-04-27 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1007 | 52% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1007 | 52% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1009 | 50% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 938 | 999 | 41% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 1219 | 1204 | 52% | 2017-12-12 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1159 | 59% | 2017-12-12 | Lost |
| 873 | 1218 | 12% | 2017-10-09 | Won |
| 873 | 1218 | 12% | 2017-10-09 | Won |
| 913 | 1066 | 29% | 2015-04-25 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1144 | 43% | 2014-12-07 | Won |
| 1056 | 1060 | 49% | 2013-10-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2013-09-28 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1056 | 51% | 2013-09-28 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1099 | 55% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 1025 | 1013 | 52% | 2011-02-06 | Won |
| 1039 | 1004 | 55% | 2009-12-05 | Won |
| 1021 | 999 | 53% | 2009-08-01 | Lost |
| 997 | 1097 | 36% | 2009-07-18 | Won |
| 940 | 999 | 42% | 2009-03-15 | Won |
| 1121 | 1140 | 47% | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1028.2 vs 1065.9 has a 44.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).