Der Letzte Geburtstag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (13 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 33
Defender wins (German): 23
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 967 | 53% | 2025-06-26 | Lost |
| 1074 | 938 | 69% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1010 | 70% | 2019-12-28 | Won |
| 961 | 1192 | 21% | 2016-12-30 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1177 | 46% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 877 | 1086 | 23% | 2010-10-06 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1025 | 48% | 2010-05-16 | Won |
| 1149 | 1313 | 28% | 2010-05-02 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1058 | 50% | 2009-12-30 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1243 | 22% | 2009-10-29 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1020 | 78% | 2009-10-29 | Won |
| 1020 | 973 | 57% | 2009-10-23 | Won |
| 1087 | 1118 | 46% | 2009-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1061.1 vs 1086.2 has a 46.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).