The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (Russian): 10
Defender wins (German): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 979 | 1086 | 35% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 909 | 1089 | 26% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1089 | 1053 | 55% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1166 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1043 | 1063 | 47% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1264 | 949 | 86% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 999 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1132 | 959 | 73% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1043 | 44% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1031 | 59% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1310 | 896 | 92% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1028 | 1412 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1310 | 33% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1022 | 1189 | 28% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1093 | 49% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1141 | 970 | 73% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1117 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1097.8 vs 1083.8 has a 52.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).