The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (24 on the archive and 70 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 48
Defender wins (German): 46
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-11-21 | | Lost |
| 837 | 1070 | 21% | 2025-11-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2019-11-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2019-03-02 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1119 | 41% | 2015-11-07 | | Lost |
| 993 | 1060 | 40% | 2015-11-07 | | Lost |
| 1087 | 1074 | 52% | 2014-10-18 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2014-08-09 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2012-10-05 | | Won |
| 1170 | 1164 | 51% | 2012-04-21 | | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2011-11-05 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1056 | 40% | 2011-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2011-10-05 | | Lost |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2011-09-15 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2011-02-26 | | Won |
| 1047 | 1435 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2011-01-20 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1226 | 24% | 2010-11-28 | | Lost |
| 1216 | 1000 | 78% | 2010-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1103 | 1000 | 64% | 2010-10-08 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2010-10-08 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2010-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1086 | 59% | | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1058 vs 1081.3 has a 46.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).