The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1073 | 1082 | 49% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 876 | 1069 | 25% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1072 | 37% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 905 | 1045 | 31% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1045 | 1050 | 49% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1068 | 53% | 2014-10-18 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1169 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1055 | 1061 | 49% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1179 | 1045 | 68% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1144 | 991 | 71% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 1055 | 41% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1140 | 60% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
| 991 | 1094 | 36% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1252 | 894 | 89% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1047 | 1423 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1252 | 41% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1066 | 1248 | 26% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1200 | 955 | 80% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1092 | 52% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1140 | 1061 | 61% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1068 | 964 | 65% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1029 | 67% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1085.4 vs 1080.8 has a 50.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).