The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1083 | 43% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 837 | 1070 | 21% | 2025-11-21 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1042 | 56% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1063 | 54% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1063 | 1119 | 42% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 993 | 1025 | 45% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1074 | 52% | 2014-10-18 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1169 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1056 | 1059 | 50% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1241 | 1156 | 62% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1085 | 1027 | 58% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 987 | 1056 | 40% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1141 | 60% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1219 | 894 | 87% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1047 | 1434 | 10% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1191 | 1219 | 46% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1060 | 1195 | 31% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1198 | 955 | 80% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1092 | 51% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1141 | 1059 | 62% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1074 | 966 | 65% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1074 | 61% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1087.5 vs 1089.1 has a 49.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).