The Elefant of Surprise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Russian): 11
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 979 | 1112 | 32% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 904 | 1051 | 30% | 2019-03-02 | Won |
| 1051 | 1054 | 50% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1068 | 50% | 2014-10-18 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1169 | 58% | 2014-08-09 | Won |
| 1039 | 1059 | 47% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1208 | 997 | 77% | 2012-04-21 | Won |
| 986 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-01-21 | Won |
| 1109 | 951 | 71% | 2011-11-05 | Lost |
| 994 | 1039 | 44% | 2011-10-07 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1152 | 58% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1075 | 45% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 1333 | 893 | 93% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1047 | 1416 | 11% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1190 | 1333 | 31% | 2011-01-20 | Won |
| 1014 | 1176 | 28% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
| 1140 | 970 | 73% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1091 | 52% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1152 | 1059 | 63% | 2010-10-08 | Won |
| 1068 | 966 | 64% | 2010-10-08 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1104 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1096 vs 1082.6 has a 51.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).