Totensonntag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 166 (52 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 93
Defender wins (German): 73
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1084 | 55% | 2024-10-05 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1016 | 51% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1069 | 995 | 60% | 2023-03-03 | Won |
| 983 | 1126 | 31% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 890 | 1078 | 25% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 964 | 951 | 52% | 2022-02-17 | Lost |
| 1076 | 924 | 71% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 952 | 1106 | 29% | 2020-12-21 | Lost |
| 946 | 881 | 59% | 2020-11-15 | Won |
| 1130 | 1141 | 48% | 2020-07-25 | Lost |
| 994 | 1025 | 46% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 1014 | 1009 | 51% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 968 | 1035 | 40% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 910 | 1219 | 14% | 2020-03-12 | Lost |
| 1082 | 999 | 62% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
| 953 | 1061 | 35% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 1072 | 982 | 63% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2018-01-20 | Won |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1110 | 997 | 66% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 938 | 1193 | 19% | 2016-11-14 | Lost |
| 1149 | 986 | 72% | 2016-11-04 | Won |
| 1008 | 911 | 64% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 989 | 1210 | 22% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 931 | 1001 | 40% | 2015-11-02 | Lost |
| 970 | 987 | 48% | 2015-07-17 | Lost |
| 998 | 1137 | 31% | 2015-07-09 | Won |
| 1043 | 1110 | 40% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1016 | 1110 | 37% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1029 | 979 | 57% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1056 | 40% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 1156 | 1316 | 28% | 2014-03-21 | Lost |
| 889 | 1026 | 31% | 2013-11-16 | Won |
| 1061 | 955 | 65% | 2013-10-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1066 | 42% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1145 | 43% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 1026 | 1145 | 34% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 882 | 1167 | 16% | 2012-04-30 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1065 | 43% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 930 | 1020 | 37% | 2011-10-30 | Won |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2011-10-28 | Won |
| 1100 | 1038 | 59% | 2011-10-07 | Won |
| 1242 | 1018 | 78% | 2011-09-08 | Won |
| 1282 | 1021 | 82% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1010 | 1175 | 28% | 2011-03-10 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1032 | 51% | 2011-01-14 | Lost |
| 963 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-11-01 | Won |
| 1114 | 940 | 73% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 1210 | 976 | 79% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1037.5 vs 1053 has a 47.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).