Totensonntag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 166 (52 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 93
Defender wins (German): 73
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1084 | 55% | 2024-10-05 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1002 | 56% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1042 | 994 | 57% | 2023-03-03 | Won |
| 1010 | 1114 | 35% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 873 | 1070 | 24% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 964 | 951 | 52% | 2022-02-17 | Lost |
| 1076 | 924 | 71% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 952 | 1126 | 27% | 2020-12-21 | Lost |
| 946 | 881 | 59% | 2020-11-15 | Won |
| 1130 | 1143 | 48% | 2020-07-25 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1011 | 50% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 1014 | 1009 | 51% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 993 | 1005 | 48% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 929 | 1213 | 16% | 2020-03-12 | Lost |
| 1080 | 999 | 61% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
| 953 | 1050 | 36% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 1072 | 982 | 63% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
| 984 | 1018 | 45% | 2018-01-20 | Won |
| 1203 | 984 | 78% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1110 | 997 | 66% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 938 | 1225 | 16% | 2016-11-14 | Lost |
| 1149 | 986 | 72% | 2016-11-04 | Won |
| 1007 | 901 | 65% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 989 | 1183 | 25% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 909 | 1001 | 37% | 2015-11-02 | Lost |
| 970 | 987 | 48% | 2015-07-17 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1136 | 34% | 2015-07-09 | Won |
| 1045 | 1110 | 41% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1016 | 1110 | 37% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1012 | 980 | 55% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1056 | 40% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 1156 | 1309 | 29% | 2014-03-21 | Lost |
| 889 | 1026 | 31% | 2013-11-16 | Won |
| 1050 | 955 | 63% | 2013-10-11 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1066 | 42% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1144 | 43% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 1043 | 1144 | 36% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 882 | 1167 | 16% | 2012-04-30 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1065 | 43% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 978 | 1020 | 44% | 2011-10-30 | Won |
| 1203 | 984 | 78% | 2011-10-28 | Won |
| 1100 | 1039 | 59% | 2011-10-07 | Won |
| 1242 | 1018 | 78% | 2011-09-08 | Won |
| 1266 | 1021 | 80% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 1203 | 984 | 78% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1010 | 1173 | 28% | 2011-03-10 | Lost |
| 1039 | 984 | 58% | 2011-01-14 | Lost |
| 963 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-11-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 940 | 70% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 1183 | 975 | 77% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1038 vs 1046.6 has a 48.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).