Totensonntag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 173 (58 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 98
Defender wins (German): 75
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1015 | 1011 | 51% | 2025-07-13 | Won |
| 1112 | 1112 | 50% | 2024-10-05 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1018 | 59% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1032 | 995 | 55% | 2023-03-03 | Won |
| 1047 | 1124 | 39% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 920 | 1075 | 29% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 965 | 958 | 51% | 2022-02-17 | Lost |
| 1076 | 965 | 65% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 913 | 1103 | 25% | 2020-12-21 | Lost |
| 946 | 881 | 59% | 2020-11-15 | Won |
| 1139 | 1135 | 51% | 2020-07-25 | Lost |
| 980 | 989 | 49% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 990 | 1019 | 46% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1009 | 51% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
| 930 | 1148 | 22% | 2020-03-12 | Lost |
| 1109 | 999 | 65% | 2020-01-24 | Won |
| 978 | 1029 | 43% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 1073 | 982 | 63% | 2019-07-10 | Won |
| 1055 | 1009 | 57% | 2018-01-20 | Won |
| 1113 | 1018 | 63% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1058 | 997 | 59% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
| 938 | 1274 | 13% | 2016-11-14 | Lost |
| 1207 | 986 | 78% | 2016-11-04 | Won |
| 1006 | 944 | 59% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 987 | 1206 | 22% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1151 | 31% | 2015-11-15 | Won |
| 969 | 1001 | 45% | 2015-11-02 | Lost |
| 964 | 994 | 46% | 2015-07-17 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1110 | 36% | 2015-07-09 | Won |
| 1022 | 1122 | 36% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1054 | 1122 | 40% | 2015-07-05 | Won |
| 1010 | 979 | 54% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1056 | 40% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-04-23 | Won |
| 1012 | 1340 | 13% | 2014-03-21 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1002 | 59% | 2014-02-11 | Won |
| 1002 | 1068 | 41% | 2014-01-14 | Won |
| 890 | 1020 | 32% | 2013-11-16 | Won |
| 1029 | 956 | 60% | 2013-10-11 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1067 | 41% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1145 | 42% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 1080 | 1145 | 41% | 2012-11-25 | Won |
| 881 | 1162 | 17% | 2012-04-30 | Lost |
| 739 | 1151 | 9% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1063 | 44% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1025 | 49% | 2011-10-30 | Won |
| 1113 | 1018 | 63% | 2011-10-28 | Won |
| 1183 | 1078 | 65% | 2011-10-07 | Won |
| 1244 | 1020 | 78% | 2011-09-08 | Won |
| 1202 | 1022 | 74% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 1113 | 1018 | 63% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1011 | 1193 | 26% | 2011-03-10 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1018 | 59% | 2011-01-14 | Lost |
| 958 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-11-01 | Won |
| 1073 | 1207 | 32% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1151 | 53% | 2010-10-03 | Lost |
| 1206 | 1038 | 72% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
Attacking (32 wins) average ELOs: 1032.9 vs 1062.4 has a 45.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).