First Love
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (20 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 28
Defender wins (Japanese): 25
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1007 | 1007 | 50% | 2025-12-13 | | Won |
| 818 | 1003 | 26% | 2024-03-23 | | Won |
| 1018 | 1020 | 50% | 2024-03-19 | | Won |
| 847 | 984 | 31% | 2023-11-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 978 | 53% | 2020-07-01 | | Lost |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2020-06-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-02-23 | | Won |
| 930 | 987 | 42% | 2018-08-27 | | Won |
| 1142 | 1032 | 65% | 2017-10-21 | | Won |
| 945 | 1242 | 15% | 2015-01-17 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-11-22 | | Won |
| 1133 | 891 | 80% | 2014-03-08 | | Won |
| 870 | 1000 | 32% | 2014-02-16 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 891 | 80% | 2014-01-15 | | Won |
| 1107 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-12-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 2013-08-25 | | Won |
| 1001 | 1125 | 33% | 2013-01-05 | | Lost |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2011-08-25 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2011-07-01 | | Won |
| 1126 | 952 | 73% | 2011-03-31 | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1023.1 vs 1020.8 has a 50.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).