First Love
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (20 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 28
Defender wins (Japanese): 25
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1030 | 50% | 2025-12-13 | Won |
| 841 | 1038 | 24% | 2024-03-23 | Won |
| 1018 | 1020 | 50% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 875 | 984 | 35% | 2023-11-07 | Won |
| 1244 | 1006 | 80% | 2020-07-01 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1079 | 63% | 2020-06-24 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-02-23 | Won |
| 930 | 987 | 42% | 2018-08-27 | Won |
| 1143 | 1077 | 59% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 944 | 1263 | 14% | 2015-01-17 | Won |
| 1138 | 973 | 72% | 2014-11-22 | Won |
| 1146 | 890 | 81% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 870 | 879 | 49% | 2014-02-16 | Lost |
| 1146 | 890 | 81% | 2014-01-15 | Won |
| 1110 | 1072 | 55% | 2013-12-28 | Won |
| 1044 | 1077 | 45% | 2013-08-25 | Won |
| 1001 | 1125 | 33% | 2013-01-05 | Lost |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2011-08-25 | Won |
| 1140 | 1197 | 42% | 2011-07-01 | Won |
| 1126 | 952 | 73% | 2011-03-31 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1047.3 vs 1039.7 has a 51.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).