Baw Drop
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (24 on the archive and 73 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 56
Defender wins (British): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2026-09-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2025-08-05 | | Lost |
| 1208 | 1000 | 77% | 2025-04-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2022-05-12 | | Won |
| 1049 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-04-03 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2021-04-06 | | Won |
| 917 | 987 | 40% | 2019-11-17 | | Won |
| 847 | 1000 | 29% | 2018-04-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2014-08-03 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2014-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2013-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2012-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2012-10-03 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1163 | 30% | 2012-07-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2012-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2012-06-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 870 | 68% | 2012-01-20 | | Won |
| 1183 | 1029 | 71% | 2011-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 1098 | 62% | 2011-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2011-09-15 | | Won |
| 1107 | 1000 | 65% | 2011-08-20 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1208 | 26% | 2011-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2011-04-20 | | Lost |
| 1041 | 940 | 64% | 2010-12-05 | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1061.2 vs 1043.7 has a 52.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).