A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 16
Defender wins (British): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 938 | 74% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 891 | 891 | 50% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1116 | 1104 | 52% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1248 | 1248 | 50% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1084 | 1085 | 50% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1412 | 1248 | 72% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1054 | 1035 | 53% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 856 | 59% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 956 | 927 | 54% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 952 | 1036 | 38% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1058 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 975 | 952 | 53% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1280 | 1157 | 67% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 973 | 1154 | 26% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1154 | 994 | 72% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1081 | 1136 | 42% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1086 | 44% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1141 | 1310 | 27% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1412 | 1113 | 85% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1121 | 1099 | 53% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1066 | 1099 | 45% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1223 | 38% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1095.5 vs 1074 has a 53.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).