A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (26 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 50
Defender wins (British): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1066 | 863 | 76% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 1125 | 932 | 75% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 964 | 55% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1119 | 1210 | 37% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1074 | 1342 | 18% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1137 | 965 | 73% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1335 | 1342 | 49% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1042 | 1005 | 55% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 925 | 49% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 1022 | 1048 | 46% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 951 | 1125 | 27% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1057 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 1003 | 905 | 64% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1285 | 1207 | 61% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1034 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 973 | 1118 | 30% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1168 | 1174 | 49% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1001 | 66% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1076 | 1142 | 41% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1031 | 52% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1139 | 1286 | 30% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1099 | 66% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1335 | 1113 | 78% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1067 | 1099 | 45% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1226 | 32% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1092.1 vs 1082.2 has a 51.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).