The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (33 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 43
Defender wins (Chinese): 59
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2026-02-18 | | Won |
| 1089 | 868 | 78% | 2025-01-14 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1143 | 67% | 2024-11-16 | | Won |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2023-08-22 | | Won |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2023-08-19 | | Won |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2023-08-17 | | Won |
| 946 | 1000 | 42% | 2022-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2021-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2021-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2021-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2020-04-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 892 | 65% | 2018-01-15 | | Won |
| 1123 | 850 | 83% | 2017-11-03 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1098 | 56% | 2017-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2017-03-18 | | Lost |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-10-26 | | Won |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 786 | 93% | 2016-04-25 | | Won |
| 1241 | 1196 | 56% | 2016-02-01 | | Won |
| 908 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | | Won |
| 1021 | 1217 | 24% | 2014-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2014-10-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2014-07-09 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2014-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1147 | 48% | 2014-01-28 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-11-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2013-06-22 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2013-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2013-04-23 | | Won |
| 907 | 1160 | 19% | 2013-03-25 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1120 | 51% | 2013-01-11 | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1028.3 vs 1039.6 has a 48.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).