The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (Japanese): 15
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1107 | 868 | 80% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 946 | 991 | 44% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1099 | 50% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1111 | 50% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1074 | 46% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 730 | 879 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1133 | 858 | 83% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1148 | 1028 | 67% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1128 | 947 | 74% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 879 | 881 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 879 | 991 | 34% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1226 | 806 | 92% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1207 | 1152 | 58% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1008 | 1257 | 19% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1070 | 58% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 991 | 1018 | 46% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 927 | 920 | 51% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1065 | 58% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1009 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 952 | 947 | 51% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1144 | 1096 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 928 | 1159 | 21% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1106 | 51% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1031.2 vs 1015.2 has a 52.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).