The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (33 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 43
Defender wins (Chinese): 59
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 961 | 973 | 48% | 2026-02-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 868 | 78% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 1263 | 1143 | 67% | 2024-11-16 | Won |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 948 | 1103 | 29% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1077 | 53% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1120 | 47% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1066 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 731 | 879 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1123 | 851 | 83% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1155 | 1077 | 61% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1038 | 63% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 879 | 879 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 879 | 1103 | 22% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1226 | 786 | 93% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1245 | 1243 | 50% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 908 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1030 | 1218 | 25% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1052 | 73% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 1103 | 1037 | 59% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 942 | 920 | 53% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1130 | 50% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1012 | 63% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 907 | 1038 | 32% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1143 | 1107 | 55% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 907 | 1161 | 19% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1120 | 51% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1043.5 vs 1034.4 has a 51.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).