The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (Japanese): 14
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 981 | 982 | 50% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 981 | 982 | 50% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 982 | 981 | 50% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 955 | 1077 | 33% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1069 | 48% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1102 | 54% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1011 | 994 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1007 | 57% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 733 | 881 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1144 | 856 | 84% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1077 | 1088 | 48% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1126 | 962 | 72% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 881 | 880 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 881 | 1077 | 24% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1225 | 849 | 90% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1288 | 1123 | 72% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 917 | 1016 | 36% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1021 | 1267 | 20% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1055 | 42% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 1077 | 1032 | 56% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 927 | 917 | 51% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1105 | 967 | 69% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1009 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 964 | 962 | 50% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 984 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1144 | 1093 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 938 | 1066 | 32% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1104 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1027.7 vs 1012.6 has a 52.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).