The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33
Attacker wins (Japanese): 17
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 969 | 967 | 50% | 2026-02-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 868 | 78% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 1283 | 1143 | 69% | 2024-11-16 | Won |
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 976 | 986 | 49% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 948 | 991 | 44% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1066 | 55% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1151 | 45% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1066 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 731 | 878 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1139 | 851 | 84% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1147 | 1045 | 64% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1041 | 62% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 878 | 879 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 878 | 991 | 34% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1226 | 786 | 93% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1180 | 1200 | 47% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 908 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1028 | 1256 | 21% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1075 | 70% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 991 | 1037 | 43% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 887 | 920 | 45% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1098 | 54% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1010 | 64% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 952 | 1041 | 37% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1143 | 1107 | 55% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 927 | 1163 | 20% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1123 | 50% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1039.1 vs 1024.5 has a 52.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).