The Bend in the Road
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (16 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 13
Defender wins (German (SS)): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 878 | 861 | 52% | 2023-05-01 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1016 | 50% | 2022-05-19 | Won |
| 1098 | 1133 | 45% | 2021-06-24 | Won |
| 1039 | 999 | 56% | 2021-02-03 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-08-12 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1144 | 53% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 992 | 992 | 50% | 2020-06-13 | Won |
| 961 | 1214 | 19% | 2019-04-17 | Lost |
| 975 | 942 | 55% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1010 | 54% | 2018-08-01 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2016-04-16 | Won |
| 992 | 992 | 50% | 2015-08-07 | Lost |
| 992 | 992 | 50% | 2015-08-07 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1146 | 41% | 2014-07-14 | Lost |
| 1161 | 1216 | 42% | 2014-05-24 | Tied |
| 1019 | 992 | 54% | 2014-05-10 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1035.3 vs 1057.9 has a 46.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).