The Bend in the Road
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (British): 7
Defender wins (German (SS)): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2026-06-08 | | Lost |
| 878 | 1000 | 33% | 2023-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2022-05-19 | | Won |
| 1043 | 1132 | 37% | 2021-06-24 | | Won |
| 1002 | 999 | 50% | 2021-02-03 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1164 | 34% | 2020-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-06-29 | | Won |
| 992 | 992 | 50% | 2020-06-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1216 | 22% | 2019-04-17 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2018-11-10 | | Lost |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2018-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2016-04-16 | | Won |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2015-08-07 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2015-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1180 | 26% | 2014-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1215 | 22% | 2014-05-24 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 992 | 51% | 2014-05-10 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1012.3 vs 1057.9 has a 43.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).