The Island
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28 (16 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German (SS)): 5
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 993 | 959 | 55% | 2024-12-22 | Won |
| 1006 | 926 | 61% | 2021-04-06 | Tied |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-11-12 | Won |
| 996 | 1040 | 44% | 2020-10-05 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-05-30 | Won |
| 1040 | 959 | 61% | 2018-12-01 | Won |
| 1040 | 959 | 61% | 2018-11-25 | Won |
| 1040 | 959 | 61% | 2018-10-30 | Tied |
| 959 | 877 | 62% | 2018-10-23 | Won |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 851 | 986 | 31% | 2016-12-21 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2016-08-16 | Won |
| 999 | 1223 | 22% | 2015-06-28 | Won |
| 1412 | 942 | 94% | 2015-03-07 | Won |
| 1209 | 1182 | 54% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
| 1003 | 1038 | 45% | 2015-01-02 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1045.4 vs 1015.1 has a 54.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).