To Ashes
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (18 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 30
Defender wins (British): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1037 | 998 | 56% | 2026-03-04 | Won |
| 968 | 1031 | 41% | 2025-10-11 | Lost |
| 987 | 1085 | 36% | 2022-11-05 | Won |
| 920 | 1003 | 38% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1179 | 44% | 2020-08-07 | Won |
| 967 | 1136 | 27% | 2020-08-02 | Won |
| 1214 | 1123 | 63% | 2018-04-21 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1234 | 27% | 2018-03-24 | Lost |
| 1337 | 1263 | 60% | 2017-12-05 | Won |
| 1158 | 936 | 78% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1043 | 66% | 2015-10-06 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1141 | 56% | 2015-08-15 | Lost |
| 941 | 974 | 45% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2015-05-11 | Lost |
| 1102 | 884 | 78% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
| 1135 | 955 | 74% | 2015-04-13 | Won |
| 1097 | 1159 | 41% | 2014-12-30 | Won |
| 1136 | 1060 | 61% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1085.8 vs 1065.4 has a 52.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).