Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (30 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 65
Defender wins (German): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 1038 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 941 | 918 | 53% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1190 | 1098 | 63% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1153 | 1098 | 58% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1270 | 1036 | 79% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1036 | 1270 | 21% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1093 | 41% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1023 | 65% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1030 | 49% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 891 | 1055 | 28% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 891 | 1031 | 31% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1028 | 805 | 78% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 981 | 1100 | 34% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 954 | 1051 | 36% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1028 | 52% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1118 | 59% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 971 | 1178 | 23% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 962 | 1037 | 39% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1163 | 1103 | 59% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 986 | 1153 | 28% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1100 | 1123 | 47% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1018 | 1002 | 52% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1183 | 1211 | 46% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1028 | 54% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1212 | 1118 | 63% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1053 | 64% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1021 | 1143 | 33% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1205 | 805 | 91% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1068.5 vs 1059.7 has a 51.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).