Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 129 (32 on the archive and 97 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 67
Defender wins (German): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 915 | 1009 | 37% | 2025-12-13 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-07-04 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2024-03-19 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1152 | 46% | 2024-03-15 | | Won |
| 1140 | 1152 | 48% | 2024-03-15 | | Won |
| 1203 | 1004 | 76% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 1004 | 1203 | 24% | 2024-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1023 | 49% | 2023-09-26 | | Lost |
| 1135 | 969 | 72% | 2022-02-26 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1030 | 41% | 2022-02-06 | | Won |
| 965 | 1146 | 26% | 2021-05-23 | | Won |
| 965 | 1030 | 41% | 2020-05-06 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1000 | 53% | 2020-04-29 | | Lost |
| 991 | 1126 | 31% | 2019-12-16 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1063 | 39% | 2019-09-02 | | Lost |
| 1082 | 1028 | 58% | 2019-07-20 | | Lost |
| 1123 | 1000 | 67% | 2019-06-08 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1123 | 29% | 2019-05-16 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2019-01-19 | | Won |
| 1096 | 1102 | 49% | 2018-01-27 | | Won |
| 995 | 1140 | 30% | 2017-11-12 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2017-07-06 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1095 | 38% | 2017-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2016-10-13 | | Lost |
| 1262 | 1003 | 82% | 2016-08-10 | | Won |
| 1146 | 1081 | 59% | 2016-06-27 | | Won |
| 1229 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-06-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2016-06-01 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1053 | 62% | 2016-02-26 | | Won |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2016-01-20 | | Won |
| 1344 | 1006 | 87% | 2015-05-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1164 | 28% | 2015-03-13 | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1065.5 vs 1052.8 has a 51.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).