Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 129 (33 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 67
Defender wins (German): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 916 | 1006 | 37% | 2025-12-13 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1022 | 52% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 941 | 918 | 53% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1187 | 1095 | 63% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1193 | 1095 | 64% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1221 | 999 | 78% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 999 | 1221 | 22% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1023 | 49% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1015 | 67% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1030 | 48% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 893 | 1117 | 22% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 893 | 1030 | 31% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1019 | 51% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 978 | 1110 | 32% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 992 | 983 | 51% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1028 | 53% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1118 | 49% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 1113 | 31% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 947 | 1037 | 37% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1159 | 1102 | 58% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 995 | 1193 | 24% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1110 | 1120 | 49% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1005 | 1019 | 48% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1054 | 50% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1002 | 82% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1117 | 1006 | 65% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1199 | 1118 | 61% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1232 | 31% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1053 | 62% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 727 | 92% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1344 | 1006 | 87% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1021 | 1190 | 27% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1207 | 1019 | 75% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1071.7 vs 1055.2 has a 52.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).