Coal in Their Stockings
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (30 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 65
Defender wins (German): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1057 | 1057 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 870 | 918 | 43% | 2024-03-19 | Won |
| 1166 | 1100 | 59% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1234 | 1100 | 68% | 2024-03-15 | Won |
| 1192 | 992 | 76% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 992 | 1192 | 24% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1058 | 46% | 2023-09-26 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1025 | 66% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1028 | 50% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 998 | 1060 | 41% | 2021-05-23 | Won |
| 998 | 1030 | 45% | 2020-05-06 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1010 | 55% | 2020-04-29 | Lost |
| 964 | 1162 | 24% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 938 | 1074 | 31% | 2019-09-02 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1028 | 51% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1118 | 51% | 2019-06-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 1128 | 29% | 2019-05-16 | Lost |
| 977 | 1037 | 41% | 2019-01-19 | Won |
| 1115 | 1109 | 51% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 999 | 1234 | 21% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1162 | 1121 | 56% | 2017-07-06 | Won |
| 1005 | 1037 | 45% | 2017-03-11 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1188 | 51% | 2016-10-13 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1028 | 55% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1170 | 1118 | 57% | 2016-06-10 | Won |
| 1096 | 1313 | 22% | 2016-06-01 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1053 | 64% | 2016-02-26 | Won |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2016-01-20 | Won |
| 1021 | 1146 | 33% | 2015-03-13 | Won |
| 1157 | 1010 | 70% | 2015-01-16 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1067.9 vs 1072.9 has a 49.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).