Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 81 (26 on the archive and 55 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 40
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1022 | 1048 | 46% | 2025-09-21 | Lost |
| 988 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-07-12 | Won |
| 1001 | 973 | 54% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1000 | 58% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 1008 | 945 | 59% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1008 | 945 | 59% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 996 | 1007 | 48% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1047 | 990 | 58% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 993 | 1011 | 47% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1117 | 939 | 74% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1053 | 1053 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1208 | 1085 | 67% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1215 | 1085 | 68% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 931 | 927 | 51% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 931 | 927 | 51% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 891 | 1102 | 23% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1106 | 48% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1225 | 24% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1000 | 51% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1228 | 1179 | 57% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1241 | 31% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1197 | 52% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1080 | 49% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1170 | 887 | 84% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1052.1 vs 1039.7 has a 51.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).