Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 78 (25 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 37
Defender wins (German): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1089 | 1066 | 53% | 2025-09-21 | Lost |
| 1043 | 762 | 83% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1198 | 1142 | 58% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1131 | 44% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1018 | 59% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1039 | 996 | 56% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1051 | 1138 | 38% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1008 | 1006 | 50% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1123 | 938 | 74% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1133 | 1106 | 54% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1133 | 1106 | 54% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1011 | 994 | 52% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 1011 | 994 | 52% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 927 | 1106 | 26% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1096 | 50% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1127 | 47% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 802 | 1131 | 13% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1333 | 1215 | 66% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1207 | 52% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1137 | 63% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1043 | 54% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1257 | 949 | 85% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1088.8 vs 1056.2 has a 54.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).