Liberation Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (24 on the archive and 52 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 37
Defender wins (German): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 956 | 767 | 75% | 2024-06-13 | Won |
| 1193 | 1141 | 57% | 2024-04-18 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1132 | 43% | 2024-04-08 | Lost |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2023-07-19 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1019 | 59% | 2023-04-05 | Won |
| 1043 | 1014 | 54% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1089 | 1138 | 43% | 2022-01-05 | Won |
| 1008 | 989 | 53% | 2020-11-06 | Won |
| 1116 | 939 | 73% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Won |
| 1157 | 1110 | 57% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1157 | 1110 | 57% | 2019-03-30 | Won |
| 1019 | 1036 | 48% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 1019 | 1036 | 48% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 952 | 1087 | 31% | 2018-05-22 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1094 | 50% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1136 | 42% | 2015-09-05 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1132 | 32% | 2015-08-24 | Won |
| 1310 | 1215 | 63% | 2015-08-23 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1264 | 44% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1136 | 62% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 1046 | 53% | 2015-01-17 | Lost |
| 1257 | 949 | 85% | 2015-01-15 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1097.3 vs 1060.8 has a 55.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).