Don’t Count Your Chickens
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 9 (3 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Commonwealth): 3
Defender wins (Japanese): 6
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Commonwealth): 0
Defender wins (Japanese): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2025-06-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2019-04-04 | A | Lost |
| 1141 | 1073 | 60% | 2018-10-01 | | Won |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1031 vs 999.7 has a 54.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).