Matira's Secret
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (11 on the archive and 20 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 898 | 864 | 55% | 2025-11-23 | Won |
| 1342 | 1088 | 81% | 2018-11-01 | Won |
| 982 | 1088 | 35% | 2018-03-27 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1235 | 22% | 2016-12-01 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1024 | 71% | 2016-03-19 | Lost |
| 940 | 956 | 48% | 2016-03-19 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1072 | 48% | 2016-03-10 | Won |
| 985 | 1252 | 18% | 2015-12-05 | Lost |
| 982 | 837 | 70% | 2015-10-09 | Lost |
| 891 | 1098 | 23% | 2015-10-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1217 | 21% | 2015-10-08 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1023.5 vs 1066.5 has a 43.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).