Red Churchills
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (20 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 29
Defender wins (Finnish): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1220 | 1186 | 55% | 2026-04-28 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1121 | 50% | 2025-11-08 | Lost |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 2025-10-23 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1121 | 46% | 2025-07-08 | Won |
| 1068 | 1095 | 46% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 1159 | 779 | 90% | 2024-08-14 | Won |
| 1048 | 1051 | 50% | 2024-03-27 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-03-04 | Won |
| 940 | 874 | 59% | 2024-03-02 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2021-10-09 | Won |
| 985 | 1201 | 22% | 2021-04-25 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2021-04-18 | Won |
| 987 | 1085 | 36% | 2021-03-01 | Lost |
| 865 | 871 | 49% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1118 | 969 | 70% | 2018-05-01 | Lost |
| 1212 | 946 | 82% | 2017-09-04 | Won |
| 982 | 1128 | 30% | 2016-09-17 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1072 | 45% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1029 | 52% | 2016-07-02 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1141 | 39% | 2016-02-25 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1051.6 vs 1057 has a 49.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).