Red Churchills
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (20 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 29
Defender wins (Finnish): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1194 | 25% | 2026-04-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2025-11-08 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2025-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1111 | 1126 | 48% | 2025-07-08 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1111 | 40% | 2024-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 780 | 90% | 2024-08-14 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1051 | 47% | 2024-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2024-03-04 | | Won |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2024-03-02 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2021-10-09 | | Won |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2021-04-18 | | Won |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2021-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2020-03-21 | | Won |
| 1127 | 959 | 72% | 2018-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1209 | 1000 | 77% | 2017-09-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2016-09-17 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1078 | 39% | 2016-07-02 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1141 | 39% | 2016-02-25 | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1036.2 vs 1060.1 has a 46.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).