Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34 (12 on the archive and 22 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 15
Defender wins (American): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1058 | 1228 | 27% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1242 | 920 | 86% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1042 | 1109 | 40% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 956 | 927 | 54% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 928 | 866 | 59% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 1044 | 949 | 63% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1062 | 81% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1248 | 970 | 83% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 984 | 1140 | 29% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1052 | 62% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 874 | 952 | 39% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1062.9 vs 1008.7 has a 57.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).