Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (12 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (American): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1128 | 1276 | 30% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1030 | 78% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1028 | 1128 | 36% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 999 | 982 | 52% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 871 | 865 | 51% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 984 | 1002 | 47% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1421 | 24% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1159 | 965 | 75% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1022 | 49% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1022 | 968 | 58% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 872 | 884 | 48% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1038.4 vs 1037.7 has a 50.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).