Costly Baptism
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 177 (62 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 103
Defender wins (Polish): 73
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2026-02-07 | Won |
| 1038 | 1025 | 52% | 2025-07-31 | Lost |
| 993 | 1025 | 45% | 2025-07-31 | Lost |
| 1025 | 984 | 56% | 2025-04-04 | Won |
| 845 | 967 | 33% | 2025-02-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 976 | 66% | 2025-02-07 | Won |
| 909 | 1066 | 29% | 2024-09-08 | Lost |
| 988 | 973 | 52% | 2024-04-02 | Won |
| 1076 | 1076 | 50% | 2024-03-23 | Won |
| 1140 | 1015 | 67% | 2023-11-18 | Won |
| 1019 | 1005 | 52% | 2023-09-19 | Won |
| 843 | 950 | 35% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 970 | 955 | 52% | 2023-03-08 | Won |
| 1260 | 1270 | 49% | 2023-01-31 | Lost |
| 1311 | 1220 | 63% | 2022-06-17 | Lost |
| 988 | 988 | 50% | 2022-06-06 | Lost |
| 1063 | 967 | 63% | 2022-05-31 | Lost |
| 988 | 954 | 55% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2022-01-27 | Won |
| 1080 | 1189 | 35% | 2021-04-17 | Won |
| 880 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 1061 | 999 | 59% | 2021-02-16 | Won |
| 1064 | 1153 | 37% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1136 | 1179 | 44% | 2020-07-22 | Won |
| 998 | 938 | 59% | 2020-05-29 | Won |
| 989 | 984 | 51% | 2020-05-22 | Won |
| 884 | 863 | 53% | 2020-05-14 | Lost |
| 953 | 1040 | 38% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1064 | 1144 | 39% | 2020-03-08 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1162 | 35% | 2019-08-01 | Lost |
| 1048 | 988 | 59% | 2018-08-11 | Won |
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2018-08-05 | Won |
| 930 | 922 | 51% | 2018-07-15 | Won |
| 983 | 992 | 49% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 992 | 1064 | 40% | 2018-04-26 | Won |
| 1080 | 1007 | 60% | 2018-04-21 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1058 | 46% | 2018-04-08 | Won |
| 1191 | 1106 | 62% | 2018-03-20 | Lost |
| 975 | 1038 | 41% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1029 | 1220 | 25% | 2017-08-04 | Lost |
| 902 | 968 | 41% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 902 | 968 | 41% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 1123 | 968 | 71% | 2017-04-13 | Won |
| 933 | 1146 | 23% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1006 | 1041 | 45% | 2017-01-28 | Lost |
| 988 | 972 | 52% | 2017-01-07 | Won |
| 1174 | 1234 | 41% | 2016-09-28 | Lost |
| 943 | 1251 | 15% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1019 | 1032 | 48% | 2016-07-20 | Won |
| 982 | 1131 | 30% | 2016-07-08 | Won |
| 1052 | 1073 | 47% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1234 | 1160 | 60% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 876 | 1080 | 24% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 1121 | 1060 | 59% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2016-05-11 | Lost |
| 939 | 1206 | 18% | 2016-04-18 | Lost |
| 1174 | 982 | 75% | 2016-04-13 | Won |
| 1120 | 1008 | 66% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
| 1129 | 890 | 80% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Won |
| 1175 | 1036 | 69% | | Won |
| 1036 | 1017 | 53% | | Lost |
Attacking (43 wins) average ELOs: 1023.7 vs 1046.3 has a 46.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).