Costly Baptism
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 177 (62 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 103
Defender wins (Polish): 73
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2026-02-07 | Won |
| 1041 | 1019 | 53% | 2025-07-31 | Lost |
| 993 | 1019 | 46% | 2025-07-31 | Lost |
| 1025 | 980 | 56% | 2025-04-04 | Won |
| 845 | 967 | 33% | 2025-02-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 976 | 66% | 2025-02-07 | Won |
| 909 | 1066 | 29% | 2024-09-08 | Lost |
| 985 | 973 | 52% | 2024-04-02 | Won |
| 1079 | 1062 | 52% | 2024-03-23 | Won |
| 1122 | 975 | 70% | 2023-11-18 | Won |
| 1045 | 1006 | 56% | 2023-09-19 | Won |
| 879 | 950 | 40% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 970 | 957 | 52% | 2023-03-08 | Won |
| 1259 | 1269 | 49% | 2023-01-31 | Lost |
| 1309 | 1167 | 69% | 2022-06-17 | Lost |
| 967 | 985 | 47% | 2022-06-06 | Lost |
| 1019 | 967 | 57% | 2022-05-31 | Lost |
| 985 | 954 | 54% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2022-01-27 | Won |
| 1081 | 1189 | 35% | 2021-04-17 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 975 | 1018 | 44% | 2021-02-16 | Won |
| 1064 | 1076 | 48% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1135 | 1179 | 44% | 2020-07-22 | Won |
| 969 | 967 | 50% | 2020-05-29 | Won |
| 989 | 980 | 51% | 2020-05-22 | Won |
| 879 | 864 | 52% | 2020-05-14 | Lost |
| 954 | 1097 | 31% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1064 | 1172 | 35% | 2020-03-08 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1201 | 30% | 2019-08-01 | Lost |
| 1057 | 985 | 60% | 2018-08-11 | Won |
| 1073 | 1073 | 50% | 2018-08-05 | Won |
| 930 | 922 | 51% | 2018-07-15 | Won |
| 1045 | 931 | 66% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 931 | 1102 | 27% | 2018-04-26 | Won |
| 1079 | 1007 | 60% | 2018-04-21 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1058 | 53% | 2018-04-08 | Won |
| 1176 | 1104 | 60% | 2018-03-20 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1038 | 52% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1028 | 1167 | 31% | 2017-08-04 | Lost |
| 902 | 972 | 40% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 902 | 972 | 40% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 1139 | 972 | 72% | 2017-04-13 | Won |
| 1044 | 1023 | 53% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1007 | 1041 | 45% | 2017-01-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 971 | 52% | 2017-01-07 | Won |
| 1157 | 1252 | 37% | 2016-09-28 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1250 | 28% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1045 | 1031 | 52% | 2016-07-20 | Won |
| 991 | 1134 | 31% | 2016-07-08 | Won |
| 1072 | 1074 | 50% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1234 | 1159 | 61% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 875 | 1081 | 23% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 1120 | 1068 | 57% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2016-05-11 | Lost |
| 938 | 1239 | 15% | 2016-04-18 | Lost |
| 1235 | 991 | 80% | 2016-04-13 | Won |
| 1123 | 1008 | 66% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
| 1125 | 891 | 79% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
| 1096 | 1084 | 52% | | Won |
| 1171 | 1084 | 62% | | Won |
| 1084 | 1018 | 59% | | Lost |
Attacking (43 wins) average ELOs: 1032 vs 1046.1 has a 47.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).