Costly Baptism
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 171 (56 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 94
Defender wins (Polish): 76
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Polish): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 994 | 54% | 2025-04-04 | Won |
| 864 | 924 | 41% | 2025-02-18 | Won |
| 1143 | 1131 | 52% | 2025-02-07 | Won |
| 890 | 1078 | 25% | 2024-09-08 | Lost |
| 911 | 975 | 41% | 2024-04-02 | Won |
| 1084 | 1120 | 45% | 2024-03-23 | Won |
| 1064 | 930 | 68% | 2023-11-18 | Won |
| 1029 | 1040 | 48% | 2023-09-19 | Won |
| 895 | 951 | 42% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 968 | 958 | 51% | 2023-03-08 | Won |
| 1306 | 1282 | 53% | 2022-06-17 | Lost |
| 928 | 911 | 52% | 2022-06-06 | Lost |
| 1008 | 924 | 62% | 2022-05-31 | Lost |
| 911 | 956 | 44% | 2022-03-19 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2022-01-27 | Won |
| 1026 | 1014 | 52% | 2021-04-17 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 945 | 927 | 53% | 2021-02-16 | Won |
| 1061 | 1089 | 46% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1116 | 1172 | 42% | 2020-07-22 | Won |
| 931 | 1015 | 38% | 2020-05-29 | Won |
| 1025 | 994 | 54% | 2020-05-22 | Won |
| 966 | 862 | 65% | 2020-05-14 | Lost |
| 955 | 1114 | 29% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1061 | 1149 | 38% | 2020-03-08 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1217 | 29% | 2019-08-01 | Lost |
| 1054 | 911 | 69% | 2018-08-11 | Won |
| 1082 | 1082 | 50% | 2018-08-05 | Won |
| 925 | 917 | 51% | 2018-07-15 | Won |
| 1061 | 910 | 70% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 910 | 1219 | 14% | 2018-04-26 | Won |
| 1075 | 1202 | 32% | 2018-04-21 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1058 | 54% | 2018-04-08 | Won |
| 1141 | 1102 | 56% | 2018-03-20 | Lost |
| 983 | 1038 | 42% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1014 | 1282 | 18% | 2017-08-04 | Lost |
| 900 | 1009 | 35% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 900 | 1009 | 35% | 2017-04-16 | Won |
| 1157 | 1009 | 70% | 2017-04-13 | Won |
| 1061 | 973 | 62% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1002 | 1041 | 44% | 2017-01-28 | Lost |
| 911 | 972 | 41% | 2017-01-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 1316 | 22% | 2016-09-28 | Lost |
| 957 | 1248 | 16% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1029 | 1032 | 50% | 2016-07-20 | Won |
| 1032 | 1207 | 27% | 2016-07-08 | Won |
| 1086 | 1068 | 53% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1225 | 1133 | 63% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 913 | 1026 | 34% | 2016-06-12 | Won |
| 938 | 1193 | 19% | 2016-04-18 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1032 | 74% | 2016-04-13 | Won |
| 1110 | 1009 | 64% | 2016-03-06 | Won |
| 1126 | 889 | 80% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
| 1117 | 1029 | 62% | | Lost |
| 1169 | 1117 | 57% | | Won |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | | Won |
Attacking (41 wins) average ELOs: 1024.1 vs 1050.9 has a 46.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).