A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (15 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1189 | 1054 | 69% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 979 | 970 | 51% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1044 | 974 | 60% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1029 | 68% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1114 | 1189 | 39% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 920 | 1064 | 30% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 1016 | 982 | 55% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1127 | 36% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1096 | 39% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1154 | 27% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1329 | 21% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1268 | 938 | 87% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 873 | 1268 | 9% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1036 | 49% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1055.3 vs 1079.5 has a 46.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).