A Bitter Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (15 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 17
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1248 | 1064 | 74% | 2024-10-26 | Won |
| 979 | 968 | 52% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1014 | 994 | 53% | 2023-03-27 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1029 | 67% | 2023-03-11 | Tied |
| 1079 | 1248 | 27% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2021-08-17 | Lost |
| 919 | 1116 | 24% | 2020-06-27 | Won |
| 994 | 1008 | 48% | 2020-05-29 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1157 | 31% | 2019-05-05 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1094 | 46% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 979 | 1141 | 28% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1310 | 24% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 1257 | 938 | 86% | 2016-08-29 | Won |
| 873 | 1257 | 10% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1036 | 49% | 2016-07-07 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1055.9 vs 1089.5 has a 45.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).