Iron Greeting
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 105 (31 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 66
Defender wins (Russian): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 977 | 971 | 51% | 2025-11-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 869 | 62% | 2024-01-30 | Won |
| 1106 | 1228 | 33% | 2023-07-13 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1063 | 51% | 2022-03-08 | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2021-09-06 | Won |
| 1004 | 1084 | 39% | 2021-06-18 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2020-12-18 | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 975 | 1123 | 30% | 2019-12-15 | Won |
| 1165 | 1030 | 69% | 2019-10-06 | Won |
| 1119 | 1125 | 49% | 2019-09-29 | Won |
| 913 | 1048 | 31% | 2019-01-27 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1038 | 60% | 2018-10-22 | Lost |
| 959 | 1146 | 25% | 2018-10-19 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1030 | 69% | 2018-10-03 | Won |
| 1038 | 1029 | 51% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 951 | 1017 | 41% | 2017-09-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 989 | 62% | 2017-06-23 | Won |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2017-02-17 | Lost |
| 1216 | 937 | 83% | 2017-01-16 | Won |
| 1435 | 1077 | 89% | 2016-09-04 | Won |
| 1251 | 1227 | 53% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1143 | 1087 | 58% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1156 | 1034 | 67% | 2016-07-29 | Won |
| 1227 | 1013 | 77% | 2016-07-29 | Won |
| 974 | 1094 | 33% | 2016-07-09 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1087 | 81% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 1059 | 1143 | 38% | 2016-06-13 | Won |
| 1165 | 1182 | 48% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2016-03-16 | Won |
| 891 | 1133 | 20% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1084.5 vs 1060.6 has a 53.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).