Iron Greeting
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (29 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 64
Defender wins (Russian): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 953 | 891 | 59% | 2024-01-30 | Won |
| 1106 | 1224 | 34% | 2023-07-13 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1027 | 53% | 2022-03-08 | Won |
| 1114 | 989 | 67% | 2021-09-06 | Won |
| 987 | 1089 | 36% | 2021-06-18 | Lost |
| 956 | 927 | 54% | 2020-12-18 | Won |
| 934 | 864 | 60% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 1019 | 1157 | 31% | 2019-12-15 | Won |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2019-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1152 | 48% | 2019-09-29 | Won |
| 913 | 1116 | 24% | 2019-01-27 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1052 | 56% | 2018-10-22 | Lost |
| 984 | 1058 | 40% | 2018-10-19 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1014 | 68% | 2018-10-03 | Won |
| 1038 | 1003 | 55% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 903 | 1017 | 34% | 2017-09-09 | Lost |
| 1248 | 989 | 82% | 2017-06-23 | Won |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2017-02-17 | Lost |
| 1219 | 879 | 88% | 2017-01-16 | Won |
| 1412 | 1026 | 90% | 2016-09-04 | Won |
| 1248 | 1264 | 48% | 2016-09-03 | Won |
| 1132 | 1005 | 68% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1264 | 1012 | 81% | 2016-07-29 | Won |
| 949 | 1025 | 39% | 2016-07-29 | Won |
| 974 | 1036 | 41% | 2016-07-09 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1130 | 40% | 2016-06-13 | Won |
| 1141 | 1257 | 34% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2016-03-16 | Won |
| 889 | 1106 | 22% | 2016-03-01 | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1082.5 vs 1047.7 has a 55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).