Gavin's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17 (10 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 13
Defender wins (German): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 924 | 1033 | 35% | 2026-02-02 | | Lost |
| 977 | 966 | 52% | 2024-08-12 | | Won |
| 927 | 1090 | 28% | 2024-03-31 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-03-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2020-10-22 | | Won |
| 959 | 1174 | 22% | 2019-10-26 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1127 | 47% | 2018-08-03 | | Won |
| 1085 | 992 | 63% | 2017-11-15 | | Won |
| 1085 | 992 | 63% | 2017-11-15 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-03-20 | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1003.9 vs 1058.9 has a 42.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).