Gavin's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17 (10 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 13
Defender wins (German): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 973 | 1038 | 41% | 2026-02-02 | Lost |
| 1002 | 893 | 65% | 2024-08-12 | Won |
| 941 | 1040 | 36% | 2024-03-31 | Lost |
| 988 | 937 | 57% | 2023-03-15 | Won |
| 880 | 989 | 35% | 2020-10-22 | Won |
| 1027 | 967 | 59% | 2019-10-26 | Won |
| 1108 | 1117 | 49% | 2018-08-03 | Won |
| 1064 | 998 | 59% | 2017-11-15 | Won |
| 1064 | 998 | 59% | 2017-11-15 | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1005.5 vs 1020.3 has a 47.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).