Trial Run
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (18 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 23
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 924 | 66% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 918 | 866 | 57% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 1036 | 947 | 63% | 2021-05-29 | Won |
| 1014 | 1065 | 43% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 1023 | 1063 | 44% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1063 | 44% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 1028 | 895 | 68% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1152 | 1135 | 52% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1091 | 905 | 74% | 2017-09-02 | Won |
| 1082 | 1009 | 60% | 2017-08-04 | Won |
| 1065 | 977 | 62% | 2017-07-01 | Lost |
| 975 | 1114 | 31% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
| 1141 | 924 | 78% | 2017-05-07 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1028 | 55% | 2017-04-02 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1024 | 54% | 2017-02-16 | Won |
| 1014 | 1103 | 37% | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1039.5 vs 1008.1 has a 54.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).