Trial Run
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (18 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 23
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 986 | 57% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 904 | 866 | 55% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 1038 | 992 | 57% | 2021-05-29 | Won |
| 1203 | 1067 | 69% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 1022 | 1053 | 46% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1053 | 46% | 2020-04-22 | Lost |
| 1037 | 895 | 69% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1138 | 1104 | 55% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1072 | 904 | 72% | 2017-09-02 | Won |
| 1082 | 1009 | 60% | 2017-08-04 | Won |
| 1099 | 977 | 67% | 2017-07-01 | Lost |
| 960 | 1173 | 23% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
| 1178 | 986 | 75% | 2017-05-07 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1020 | 61% | 2017-04-02 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1024 | 51% | 2017-02-16 | Won |
| 1014 | 1083 | 40% | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1051.7 vs 1016.4 has a 55.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).