Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 137 (33 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 64
Defender wins (German): 72
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 929 | 964 | 45% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 905 | 903 | 50% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 930 | 989 | 42% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1046 | 35% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1189 | 959 | 79% | 2023-03-26 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1087 | 78% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1147 | 943 | 76% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 866 | 928 | 41% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1307 | 1009 | 85% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1116 | 910 | 77% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1018 | 958 | 59% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1248 | 28% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1165 | 32% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1257 | 21% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 1089 | 910 | 74% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1003 | 47% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1014 | 53% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1117 | 1154 | 45% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1110 | 1052 | 58% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1310 | 974 | 87% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1046 | 947 | 64% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 848 | 880 | 45% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1141 | 1264 | 33% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1219 | 834 | 90% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 959 | 63% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1065 | 53% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 952 | 1110 | 29% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1043 | 996 | 57% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 903 | 1031 | 32% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
| 1189 | 959 | 79% | 2017-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1062.2 vs 1014.1 has a 56.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).