Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (35 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 66
Defender wins (German): 72
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 954 | 960 | 49% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 900 | 931 | 46% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 932 | 1007 | 39% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1068 | 32% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1206 | 953 | 81% | 2023-03-26 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1064 | 83% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1138 | 948 | 75% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 866 | 927 | 41% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1292 | 1013 | 83% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1091 | 930 | 72% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1020 | 932 | 62% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1196 | 35% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1165 | 29% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1242 | 29% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1203 | 33% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 1029 | 930 | 64% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1018 | 1047 | 46% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1079 | 47% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1151 | 1066 | 62% | 2018-11-04 | Won |
| 1123 | 1110 | 52% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1122 | 968 | 71% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1340 | 985 | 89% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1040 | 947 | 63% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1151 | 739 | 91% | 2018-03-19 | Won |
| 1144 | 1193 | 43% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1123 | 861 | 82% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1009 | 1055 | 43% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 969 | 62% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1066 | 45% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 951 | 1122 | 27% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 992 | 59% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 931 | 1031 | 36% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
| 1206 | 953 | 81% | 2017-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1066.7 vs 1014.6 has a 57.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).