Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (35 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 66
Defender wins (German): 72
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 977 | 964 | 52% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 898 | 909 | 48% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 930 | 1006 | 39% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1045 | 35% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2023-03-26 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1093 | 80% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1159 | 946 | 77% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 866 | 900 | 45% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1320 | 1010 | 86% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1064 | 961 | 64% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1019 | 959 | 59% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1189 | 36% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1164 | 32% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1268 | 22% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 1052 | 961 | 63% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1019 | 1046 | 46% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1044 | 52% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1152 | 1048 | 65% | 2018-11-04 | Won |
| 1122 | 1163 | 44% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1107 | 968 | 69% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1329 | 985 | 88% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1032 | 947 | 62% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2018-03-19 | Won |
| 1154 | 1242 | 38% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1181 | 878 | 85% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 1048 | 995 | 58% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 949 | 64% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1065 | 48% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 951 | 1107 | 29% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1039 | 994 | 56% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 909 | 1032 | 33% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2017-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1065.8 vs 998.6 has a 59.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).