Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 142 (36 on the archive and 106 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 72
Defender wins (German): 69
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1194 | 1000 | 75% | 2026-06-21 | | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2025-03-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2025-03-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2025-02-28 | | Won |
| 940 | 1049 | 35% | 2023-10-01 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2022-06-09 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2022-04-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 979 | 53% | 2022-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1315 | 1040 | 83% | 2021-11-19 | | Won |
| 1004 | 986 | 53% | 2021-11-19 | | Lost |
| 1020 | 927 | 63% | 2021-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2021-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2021-05-06 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2020-11-27 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 1284 | 36% | 2020-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2020-06-06 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 986 | 57% | 2019-10-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1050 | 43% | 2018-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1080 | 43% | 2018-11-24 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1089 | 57% | 2018-11-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2018-10-22 | | Won |
| 1120 | 968 | 71% | 2018-10-04 | | Won |
| 1219 | 973 | 80% | 2018-06-23 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-04-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 847 | 71% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2018-03-19 | | Won |
| 1231 | 1138 | 63% | 2018-02-13 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 2017-12-02 | | Won |
| 1071 | 988 | 62% | 2017-11-03 | | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | | Won |
| 1039 | 962 | 61% | 2017-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1091 | 42% | 2017-10-21 | | Won |
| 953 | 1242 | 16% | 2017-10-21 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1120 | 28% | 2017-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-10-05 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1026 | 44% | 2017-05-27 | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1061.1 vs 1024.5 has a 55.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).