Raff's Rules
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 138 (34 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 71
Defender wins (German): 66
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 960 | 50% | 2025-03-09 | Won |
| 1202 | 1000 | 76% | 2025-03-07 | Won |
| 929 | 1020 | 37% | 2025-02-28 | Won |
| 940 | 1008 | 40% | 2023-10-01 | Won |
| 1253 | 993 | 82% | 2022-06-09 | Tied |
| 1143 | 948 | 75% | 2022-04-23 | Won |
| 865 | 904 | 44% | 2022-04-01 | Lost |
| 1307 | 1063 | 80% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1041 | 975 | 59% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1019 | 934 | 62% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1204 | 34% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1181 | 29% | 2020-11-27 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1256 | 30% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1189 | 35% | 2020-06-06 | Lost |
| 1024 | 975 | 57% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1018 | 1065 | 43% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1081 | 42% | 2018-11-24 | Won |
| 1140 | 1088 | 57% | 2018-11-04 | Won |
| 1120 | 1096 | 53% | 2018-10-22 | Won |
| 1123 | 969 | 71% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1253 | 985 | 82% | 2018-06-23 | Lost |
| 1049 | 947 | 64% | 2018-04-08 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2018-03-19 | Won |
| 1186 | 1180 | 51% | 2018-02-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 861 | 76% | 2017-12-02 | Won |
| 995 | 1054 | 42% | 2017-11-03 | Lost |
| 1020 | 983 | 55% | 2017-10-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 985 | 59% | 2017-10-24 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1077 | 42% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 954 | 1283 | 13% | 2017-10-21 | Lost |
| 951 | 1123 | 27% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1055 | 994 | 59% | 2017-10-05 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2017-05-27 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1058.5 vs 1030.1 has a 54.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).