Up the Liri Valley
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 110 (34 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 56
Defender wins (German): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1151 | 930 | 78% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1051 | 63% | 2023-08-12 | Lost |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2022-11-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 954 | 94% | 2022-10-30 | Won |
| 905 | 1075 | 27% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1041 | 951 | 63% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 954 | 1131 | 27% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1092 | 48% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 1131 | 905 | 79% | 2022-06-16 | Lost |
| 937 | 1131 | 25% | 2022-05-25 | Won |
| 1074 | 1088 | 48% | 2022-03-28 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 1043 | 762 | 83% | 2022-02-16 | Lost |
| 762 | 1029 | 18% | 2021-02-17 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1104 | 54% | 2020-10-06 | Lost |
| 1226 | 996 | 79% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1038 | 971 | 60% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 989 | 889 | 64% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2019-11-16 | Won |
| 1043 | 1028 | 52% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 996 | 1152 | 29% | 2018-11-01 | Lost |
| 941 | 1152 | 23% | 2018-10-31 | Lost |
| 917 | 1039 | 33% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1117 | 1123 | 49% | 2018-08-25 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1117 | 40% | 2018-08-03 | Won |
| 937 | 990 | 42% | 2018-07-28 | Won |
| 1203 | 954 | 81% | 2018-07-19 | Won |
| 1094 | 1219 | 33% | 2018-04-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1106 | 31% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1188 | 1210 | 47% | 2018-03-18 | Lost |
| 1145 | 937 | 77% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-01-18 | Won |
| 1333 | 1096 | 80% | 2017-12-06 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1062.8 vs 1050.4 has a 51.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).