Up the Liri Valley
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 115 (35 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 60
Defender wins (German): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 1030 | 996 | 55% | 2025-11-08 | Lost |
| 1100 | 930 | 73% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1063 | 63% | 2023-08-12 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1048 | 47% | 2022-11-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 954 | 94% | 2022-10-30 | Won |
| 905 | 1083 | 26% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1012 | 958 | 58% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 942 | 1117 | 27% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1088 | 48% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 1117 | 905 | 77% | 2022-06-16 | Lost |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2022-05-25 | Won |
| 1105 | 1105 | 50% | 2022-03-28 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 1021 | 773 | 81% | 2022-02-16 | Lost |
| 773 | 1029 | 19% | 2021-02-17 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1086 | 56% | 2020-10-06 | Lost |
| 1226 | 996 | 79% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 991 | 1019 | 46% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1019 | 971 | 57% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 989 | 890 | 64% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1009 | 991 | 53% | 2019-11-16 | Won |
| 1043 | 1003 | 56% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1151 | 31% | 2018-11-01 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1151 | 53% | 2018-10-31 | Lost |
| 917 | 1053 | 31% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1117 | 1122 | 49% | 2018-08-25 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1117 | 42% | 2018-08-03 | Won |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2018-07-28 | Won |
| 1188 | 942 | 80% | 2018-07-19 | Won |
| 1094 | 1217 | 33% | 2018-04-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1122 | 29% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1188 | 1216 | 46% | 2018-03-18 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-01-18 | Won |
| 1333 | 1096 | 80% | 2017-12-06 | Lost |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1063.3 vs 1054.6 has a 51.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).