A Grain of Sand
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (14 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 21
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1089 | 37% | 2024-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | 2021-02-01 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1056 | 56% | 2020-11-07 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2020-06-18 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-06-03 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2019-01-09 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2018-10-04 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1138 | 36% | 2018-10-04 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1141 | 49% | 2018-10-04 | | Won |
| 1133 | 970 | 72% | 2018-04-05 | | Won |
| 970 | 1133 | 28% | 2018-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-03-24 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2018-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2018-01-03 | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1071.6 vs 1062.3 has a 51.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).