The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 79 (19 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 39
Defender wins (American): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1330 | 1153 | 73% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1136 | 45% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1204 | 805 | 91% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1271 | 737 | 96% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1091 | 1106 | 48% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 893 | 66% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1007 | 69% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1183 | 954 | 79% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1132 | 1093 | 56% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1178 | 971 | 77% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1215 | 18% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 993 | 863 | 68% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1002 | 66% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 823 | 1183 | 11% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 992 | 1106 | 34% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 975 | 1016 | 44% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1050 | 922 | 68% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 973 | 947 | 54% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1084.5 vs 1010.4 has a 60.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).