The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 79 (19 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 39
Defender wins (American): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1324 | 1196 | 68% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1137 | 45% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1158 | 954 | 76% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1268 | 747 | 95% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1091 | 1086 | 51% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1004 | 893 | 65% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1006 | 70% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1191 | 961 | 79% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1135 | 1064 | 60% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1127 | 970 | 71% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1242 | 16% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 987 | 863 | 67% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1036 | 62% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 844 | 1191 | 12% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 993 | 1107 | 34% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 956 | 1027 | 40% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1118 | 877 | 80% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 909 | 947 | 45% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1079.5 vs 1020.6 has a 58.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).