The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (20 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 38
Defender wins (American): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1056 | 1011 | 56% | 2025-01-24 | Won |
| 1347 | 1077 | 83% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1136 | 52% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1218 | 741 | 94% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1092 | 1102 | 49% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 1005 | 50% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1037 | 65% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1045 | 977 | 60% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1243 | 1021 | 78% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1123 | 970 | 71% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1245 | 16% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1342 | 907 | 92% | 2018-06-29 | Lost |
| 1007 | 863 | 70% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1077 | 58% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 828 | 1045 | 22% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 991 | 1120 | 32% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1038 | 992 | 57% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1052 | 934 | 66% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 933 | 947 | 48% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1089.7 vs 1014.8 has a 60.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).