The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 81 (21 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (North Korean): 38
Defender wins (American): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1056 | 1011 | 56% | 2025-01-24 | Won |
| 1347 | 1163 | 74% | 2024-10-08 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1136 | 46% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1178 | 1029 | 70% | 2023-05-06 | Lost |
| 1220 | 750 | 94% | 2020-06-02 | Won |
| 1092 | 1102 | 49% | 2020-03-12 | Won |
| 1005 | 985 | 53% | 2019-07-13 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1037 | 65% | 2019-05-30 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1009 | 60% | 2019-01-08 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Won |
| 1228 | 983 | 80% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1123 | 970 | 71% | 2018-08-22 | Won |
| 951 | 1220 | 18% | 2018-06-30 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1343 | 50% | 2018-06-29 | Lost |
| 1005 | 863 | 69% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1033 | 64% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 826 | 1080 | 19% | 2018-03-28 | Lost |
| 991 | 1120 | 32% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1002 | 984 | 53% | 2018-02-24 | Lost |
| 1022 | 941 | 61% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 965 | 947 | 53% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1091.2 vs 1037.8 has a 57.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).