The Replacements
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (13 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 28
Defender wins (Russian): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 941 | 53% | 2025-10-26 | Won |
| 886 | 917 | 46% | 2020-08-24 | Won |
| 974 | 976 | 50% | 2019-12-28 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1079 | 43% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 885 | 1107 | 22% | 2019-03-15 | Lost |
| 1113 | 910 | 76% | 2018-09-16 | Tied |
| 1103 | 1117 | 48% | 2018-07-29 | Won |
| 1009 | 917 | 63% | 2018-04-14 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1076 | 47% | 2018-04-06 | Won |
| 997 | 1083 | 38% | 2018-04-03 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2018-03-11 | Lost |
| 1174 | 970 | 76% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 960 | 1082 | 33% | 2018-01-12 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1028.6 vs 1023.9 has a 50.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).