Black Day in Hatten
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 152 (54 on the archive and 98 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 84
Defender wins (German): 68
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 972 | 902 | 60% | 2025-09-27 | Won |
| 864 | 960 | 37% | 2024-11-18 | Lost |
| 954 | 1080 | 33% | 2024-06-09 | Lost |
| 959 | 902 | 58% | 2024-02-28 | Lost |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-01-20 | Lost |
| 981 | 1050 | 40% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1195 | 40% | 2023-01-23 | Lost |
| 935 | 949 | 48% | 2023-01-23 | Won |
| 960 | 864 | 63% | 2023-01-20 | Won |
| 1055 | 1098 | 44% | 2022-11-01 | Won |
| 949 | 1228 | 17% | 2022-09-25 | Lost |
| 866 | 918 | 43% | 2022-08-06 | Won |
| 1346 | 1416 | 40% | 2022-06-10 | Lost |
| 1135 | 968 | 72% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1164 | 944 | 78% | 2022-03-23 | Won |
| 1082 | 1022 | 59% | 2021-12-05 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2021-12-04 | Won |
| 995 | 1048 | 42% | 2021-10-16 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2021-10-13 | Won |
| 1075 | 1041 | 55% | 2021-02-18 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1098 | 41% | 2021-02-01 | Won |
| 1045 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-02 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1103 | 59% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 925 | 1074 | 30% | 2020-06-07 | Won |
| 924 | 983 | 42% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1219 | 939 | 83% | 2020-04-13 | Won |
| 1139 | 1041 | 64% | 2019-11-03 | Won |
| 868 | 950 | 38% | 2019-10-22 | Won |
| 950 | 868 | 62% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1039 | 74% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1127 | 1065 | 59% | 2019-09-16 | Won |
| 1214 | 961 | 81% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 826 | 1139 | 14% | 2019-01-24 | Lost |
| 930 | 925 | 51% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 1227 | 1219 | 51% | 2018-12-23 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1141 | 32% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 985 | 1014 | 46% | 2018-12-08 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2018-11-24 | Lost |
| 1196 | 902 | 84% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 927 | 1106 | 26% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2018-11-06 | Won |
| 918 | 1106 | 25% | 2018-11-03 | Lost |
| 876 | 1050 | 27% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 876 | 1050 | 27% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 876 | 1050 | 27% | 2018-10-28 | Won |
| 1035 | 1183 | 30% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1007 | 64% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2018-10-04 | Lost |
| 858 | 1153 | 15% | 2018-09-26 | Lost |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2018-09-11 | Lost |
| 969 | 1138 | 27% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1028 | 57% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1065 | 971 | 63% | 2018-08-09 | Won |
| 1018 | 1104 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1024.1 vs 1047 has a 46.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).