Liehr Launches First
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 147 (50 on the archive and 97 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 75
Defender wins (American): 71
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 881 | 961 | 39% | 2025-10-28 | Won |
| 1221 | 1040 | 74% | 2025-10-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 968 | 70% | 2025-07-09 | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2025-01-25 | Lost |
| 1104 | 984 | 67% | 2025-01-06 | Lost |
| 928 | 1151 | 22% | 2024-02-06 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2023-08-30 | Won |
| 985 | 964 | 53% | 2023-08-13 | Won |
| 1005 | 995 | 51% | 2022-09-24 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1099 | 47% | 2022-08-03 | Won |
| 1038 | 1007 | 54% | 2022-08-02 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1135 | 49% | 2022-06-12 | Won |
| 941 | 1231 | 16% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1231 | 21% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1231 | 1017 | 77% | 2021-12-27 | Won |
| 1080 | 913 | 72% | 2021-12-11 | Won |
| 1097 | 954 | 69% | 2021-10-10 | Won |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2021-08-28 | Lost |
| 944 | 932 | 52% | 2021-07-04 | Won |
| 998 | 993 | 51% | 2021-06-09 | Won |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-04-27 | Won |
| 1129 | 1007 | 67% | 2021-03-21 | Won |
| 924 | 964 | 44% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1113 | 39% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 989 | 1102 | 34% | 2021-01-15 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1044 | 66% | 2020-12-31 | Won |
| 1023 | 1056 | 45% | 2020-09-26 | Won |
| 1003 | 1003 | 50% | 2019-12-29 | Won |
| 990 | 1103 | 34% | 2019-07-27 | Lost |
| 786 | 1263 | 6% | 2019-07-26 | Lost |
| 964 | 1128 | 28% | 2019-07-18 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1035 | 57% | 2019-06-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | Lost |
| 885 | 1102 | 22% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 968 | 1150 | 26% | 2019-03-24 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1234 | 48% | 2019-02-08 | Won |
| 1025 | 879 | 70% | 2019-01-29 | Won |
| 1143 | 1051 | 63% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1025 | 65% | 2019-01-03 | Lost |
| 1040 | 876 | 72% | 2019-01-02 | Won |
| 1007 | 1058 | 43% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1215 | 1025 | 75% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1094 | 1138 | 44% | 2018-11-05 | Lost |
| 851 | 1123 | 17% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1342 | 1096 | 80% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1337 | 1263 | 60% | 2018-10-17 | Won |
| 1008 | 1056 | 43% | 2018-10-05 | Lost |
| 959 | 968 | 49% | 2018-09-21 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1040 | 50% | 2018-08-12 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1039 | 47% | | Won |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1044.8 vs 1050.6 has a 49.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).