Liehr Launches First
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49
Attacker wins (German): 24
Defender wins (American): 25
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 980 | 53% | 2025-10-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2025-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 959 | 72% | 2025-07-09 | | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2025-01-25 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 984 | 71% | 2025-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1031 | 48% | 2024-02-06 | A | Lost |
| 1174 | 1000 | 73% | 2023-08-30 | | Won |
| 985 | 950 | 55% | 2023-08-13 | | Won |
| 992 | 995 | 50% | 2022-09-24 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2022-08-03 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1031 | 51% | 2022-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1132 | 49% | 2022-06-12 | | Won |
| 941 | 1219 | 17% | 2022-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2021-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1018 | 76% | 2021-12-27 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-12-11 | | Won |
| 1024 | 1014 | 51% | 2021-10-10 | | Won |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2021-08-28 | | Lost |
| 944 | 932 | 52% | 2021-07-04 | | Won |
| 976 | 1035 | 42% | 2021-06-09 | | Won |
| 1028 | 999 | 54% | 2021-04-27 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1006 | 68% | 2021-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2021-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1034 | 1140 | 35% | 2021-03-21 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1102 | 34% | 2021-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-12-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1054 | 42% | 2020-09-26 | | Won |
| 1025 | 1025 | 50% | 2019-12-29 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-07-27 | | Lost |
| 786 | 1263 | 6% | 2019-07-26 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1140 | 25% | 2019-07-18 | | Lost |
| 1075 | 1036 | 56% | 2019-06-14 | | Won |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2019-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1000 | 78% | 2019-02-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 889 | 65% | 2019-01-29 | | Won |
| 1143 | 1098 | 56% | 2019-01-19 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 1000 | 64% | 2019-01-03 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 876 | 76% | 2019-01-02 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2018-12-21 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2018-11-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2018-11-05 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1123 | 17% | 2018-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1344 | 1000 | 88% | 2018-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2018-10-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2018-10-05 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1055 | 37% | 2018-09-21 | | Lost |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1070 | 40% | | | Won |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1038.2 vs 1034.1 has a 50.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).