A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (21 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 27
Defender wins (German): 27
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1080 | 1023 | 58% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 950 | 909 | 56% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 1003 | 980 | 53% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1056 | 44% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 860 | 1149 | 16% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1090 | 917 | 73% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1037 | 784 | 81% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 860 | 1113 | 19% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1160 | 888 | 83% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1342 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1086 | 860 | 79% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1174 | 40% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1007 | 989 | 53% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1037 | 1053 | 48% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1194 | 43% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 953 | 1090 | 31% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1257 | 1010 | 81% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1340 | 19% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1029 | 43% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1037 | 60% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1042.3 vs 1046.7 has a 49.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).