A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (23 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 28
Defender wins (German): 28
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1056 | 1007 | 57% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 985 | 910 | 61% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 975 | 981 | 49% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1056 | 44% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 879 | 1153 | 17% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1101 | 919 | 74% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1045 | 778 | 82% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 879 | 1103 | 22% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1229 | 1283 | 42% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 1235 | 888 | 88% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1342 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1087 | 879 | 77% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1159 | 43% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1020 | 973 | 57% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1045 | 1052 | 49% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1167 | 51% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 946 | 1101 | 29% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1239 | 1010 | 79% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1252 | 37% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1045 | 40% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1045 | 61% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
| 1283 | 1002 | 83% | 2019-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1071 vs 1049.9 has a 53.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).