A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 55 (21 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 27
Defender wins (German): 26
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1078 | 1023 | 58% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 944 | 909 | 55% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 1020 | 981 | 56% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1056 | 44% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 905 | 1148 | 20% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1110 | 917 | 75% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1010 | 798 | 77% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 905 | 1106 | 24% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1226 | 888 | 87% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1342 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1086 | 905 | 74% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1174 | 40% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1007 | 989 | 53% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1010 | 1047 | 45% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1216 | 39% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 953 | 1110 | 29% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1254 | 1011 | 80% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1340 | 19% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1035 | 42% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1010 | 64% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1048 vs 1049.9 has a 49.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).