A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (23 on the archive and 35 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 28
Defender wins (German): 28
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1006 | 57% | 2025-11-08 | Won |
| 1008 | 909 | 64% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 985 | 967 | 53% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 995 | 1056 | 41% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 893 | 1154 | 18% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1110 | 918 | 75% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1019 | 771 | 81% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 893 | 1102 | 23% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1229 | 1264 | 45% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 1207 | 891 | 86% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 989 | 1342 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1060 | 893 | 72% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1159 | 41% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1038 | 973 | 59% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1019 | 1048 | 46% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1203 | 48% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 946 | 1110 | 28% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1221 | 933 | 84% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1232 | 42% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 983 | 49% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1019 | 65% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
| 1264 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-05-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1068.5 vs 1042.5 has a 53.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).