A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (20 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 22
Defender wins (German): 30
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 911 | 50% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 905 | 966 | 41% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1056 | 50% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 998 | 1149 | 30% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1162 | 920 | 80% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1037 | 780 | 81% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 998 | 1086 | 38% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1157 | 890 | 82% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 982 | 1324 | 12% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1095 | 998 | 64% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1115 | 49% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 1006 | 989 | 52% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1037 | 1062 | 46% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1289 | 31% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 953 | 1162 | 23% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1010 | 74% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1043 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1313 | 24% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1074 | 36% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1037 | 61% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1050.9 vs 1058.7 has a 48.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).