A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (20 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 22
Defender wins (German): 29
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1056 | 50% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 920 | 986 | 41% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 903 | 911 | 49% | 2025-04-25 | Won |
| 1154 | 919 | 79% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 952 | 925 | 54% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1036 | 786 | 81% | 2023-10-30 | Won |
| 952 | 1087 | 31% | 2023-10-07 | Won |
| 1189 | 888 | 85% | 2022-06-01 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1285 | 17% | 2022-03-26 | Lost |
| 1095 | 952 | 69% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1136 | 42% | 2021-11-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2020-12-12 | Tied |
| 1036 | 1003 | 55% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1264 | 33% | 2020-04-17 | Won |
| 952 | 1154 | 24% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
| 1257 | 1010 | 81% | 2020-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1046 | 55% | 2020-02-01 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1310 | 24% | 2020-01-24 | Lost |
| 977 | 1089 | 34% | 2019-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1036 | 60% | 2019-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1049.8 vs 1041.6 has a 51.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).