A Fine Mess...
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 59 (24 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 29
Defender wins (German): 29
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (French): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1051 | 1136 | 38% | 2026-06-19 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1009 | 61% | 2025-11-08 | | Won |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2025-04-25 | | Won |
| 1029 | 982 | 57% | 2025-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2025-04-25 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-11-03 | A | Won |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2023-11-03 | | Won |
| 1098 | 755 | 88% | 2023-10-30 | | Won |
| 966 | 1103 | 31% | 2023-10-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2023-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2022-06-01 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1348 | 11% | 2022-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 966 | 63% | 2021-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1100 | 44% | 2021-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 973 | 61% | 2020-12-12 | | Tied |
| 1098 | 1051 | 57% | 2020-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1241 | 39% | 2020-04-17 | | Won |
| 947 | 1126 | 26% | 2020-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1211 | 1000 | 77% | 2020-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2020-02-01 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2020-01-24 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1063 | 38% | 2019-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2019-08-02 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1002 | 82% | 2019-05-07 | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1062 vs 1062.2 has a 49.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).