The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (27 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 52
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1023 | 875 | 70% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1135 | 1274 | 31% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1000 | 58% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 865 | 904 | 44% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1420 | 14% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1218 | 1027 | 75% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1125 | 973 | 71% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1072 | 58% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 889 | 862 | 54% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1095 | 996 | 64% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1015 | 1274 | 18% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1074 | 967 | 65% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 973 | 990 | 48% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 990 | 1011 | 47% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 973 | 1125 | 29% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1173 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1099 | 47% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 1009 | 1057 | 43% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1249 | 959 | 84% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 1081 | 1042 | 56% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1214 | 973 | 80% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1111 | 1180 | 40% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1064 | 976 | 62% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1140 | 1176 | 45% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1019 | 61% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1053 | 974 | 61% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1072.8 vs 1055 has a 52.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).