The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (26 on the archive and 66 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 50
Defender wins (Canadian): 41
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 976 | 970 | 51% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1111 | 1313 | 24% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 866 | 899 | 45% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1062 | 55% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1204 | 1003 | 76% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1143 | 1010 | 68% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1098 | 56% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 998 | 862 | 69% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1004 | 58% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1015 | 1313 | 15% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1064 | 909 | 71% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 1010 | 1032 | 47% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 1032 | 996 | 55% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1143 | 32% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1173 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1102 | 50% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 1033 | 1010 | 53% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1015 | 52% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1042 | 56% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1157 | 1010 | 70% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1105 | 1115 | 49% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 967 | 986 | 47% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1152 | 1170 | 47% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1019 | 56% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1062 | 972 | 63% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1065.9 vs 1047.2 has a 52.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).