The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (29 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1188 | 1120 | 60% | 2026-06-06 | Won |
| 1011 | 837 | 73% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1150 | 1058 | 63% | 2024-09-22 | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1016 | 999 | 52% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 866 | 928 | 41% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1420 | 14% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1218 | 1039 | 74% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1084 | 981 | 64% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1042 | 56% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 965 | 861 | 65% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1018 | 52% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1031 | 1219 | 25% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1078 | 951 | 68% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 981 | 976 | 51% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 976 | 999 | 47% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 981 | 1084 | 36% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1172 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1099 | 47% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
| 1031 | 1042 | 48% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1185 | 981 | 76% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1056 | 1100 | 44% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1141 | 1227 | 38% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1052 | 63% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1016 | 975 | 56% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1076.3 vs 1049.6 has a 53.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).