The Closer
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (26 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 51
Defender wins (Canadian): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1007 | 898 | 65% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 1050 | 998 | 57% | 2024-04-06 | Won |
| 866 | 917 | 43% | 2023-01-03 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1419 | 14% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 1180 | 1027 | 71% | 2022-04-09 | Won |
| 1117 | 1031 | 62% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1088 | 54% | 2022-03-31 | Lost |
| 885 | 863 | 53% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1103 | 996 | 65% | 2021-07-19 | Won |
| 1015 | 1333 | 14% | 2021-07-12 | Lost |
| 1074 | 958 | 66% | 2021-07-11 | Won |
| 1031 | 1021 | 51% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1011 | 51% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1117 | 38% | 2021-05-07 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1173 | 50% | 2021-04-26 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1102 | 46% | 2021-04-07 | Won |
| 1024 | 1048 | 47% | 2020-09-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1034 | 49% | 2020-06-13 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1042 | 56% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1196 | 1031 | 72% | 2019-12-16 | Won |
| 1105 | 1174 | 40% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 997 | 51% | 2019-11-23 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1152 | 50% | 2019-10-11 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1019 | 59% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1050 | 973 | 61% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1064.2 vs 1067.5 has a 49.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).