Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (French): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1218 | 21% | 2026-04-09 | Won |
| 1230 | 1005 | 79% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 1231 | 1238 | 49% | 2024-06-14 | Lost |
| 1097 | 954 | 69% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1070 | 52% | 2022-08-04 | Lost |
| 1102 | 914 | 75% | 2021-05-03 | Won |
| 945 | 1143 | 24% | 2020-10-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1225 | 1019 | 77% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1030 | 1236 | 23% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 961 | 893 | 60% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1118.2 vs 1060 has a 58.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).