Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (13 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (French): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1218 | 21% | 2026-04-09 | Won |
| 1195 | 1005 | 75% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 1231 | 1241 | 49% | 2024-06-14 | Lost |
| 1047 | 995 | 57% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1055 | 56% | 2022-08-04 | Lost |
| 1102 | 910 | 75% | 2021-05-03 | Won |
| 1027 | 1085 | 42% | 2020-10-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1168 | 1156 | 52% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1021 | 1198 | 27% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 961 | 965 | 49% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
| 1216 | 1030 | 74% | 2020-02-08 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1114.1 vs 1070.6 has a 56.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).