Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (13 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 15
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 970 | 759 | 77% | 2026-03-01 | Won |
| 939 | 928 | 52% | 2024-11-17 | Won |
| 945 | 1126 | 26% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 1146 | 961 | 74% | 2023-02-07 | Won |
| 1184 | 1196 | 48% | 2022-10-02 | Won |
| 996 | 998 | 50% | 2022-09-12 | Lost |
| 996 | 998 | 50% | 2022-09-08 | Won |
| 996 | 891 | 65% | 2022-03-27 | Won |
| 891 | 1006 | 34% | 2022-02-15 | Lost |
| 1048 | 913 | 69% | 2022-01-30 | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2022-01-20 | Lost |
| 878 | 759 | 66% | 2021-10-26 | Tied |
| 1208 | 1165 | 56% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1032 vs 990.1 has a 56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).