Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (13 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 15
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 972 | 1133 | 28% | 2026-03-01 | Won |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Won |
| 1056 | 952 | 65% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 1135 | 998 | 69% | 2023-02-07 | Won |
| 1154 | 1196 | 44% | 2022-10-02 | Won |
| 999 | 1027 | 46% | 2022-09-12 | Lost |
| 999 | 1027 | 46% | 2022-09-08 | Won |
| 996 | 876 | 67% | 2022-03-27 | Won |
| 876 | 1021 | 30% | 2022-02-15 | Lost |
| 967 | 913 | 58% | 2022-01-30 | Won |
| 1234 | 1174 | 59% | 2022-01-20 | Lost |
| 879 | 1133 | 19% | 2021-10-26 | Tied |
| 1208 | 1208 | 50% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1032.5 vs 1046.5 has a 47.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).