Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (13 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 15
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 959 | 956 | 50% | 2026-03-01 | Won |
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Won |
| 1008 | 1007 | 50% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 1129 | 962 | 72% | 2023-02-07 | Won |
| 1170 | 1196 | 46% | 2022-10-02 | Won |
| 998 | 1027 | 46% | 2022-09-12 | Lost |
| 998 | 1027 | 46% | 2022-09-08 | Won |
| 996 | 891 | 65% | 2022-03-27 | Won |
| 891 | 1022 | 32% | 2022-02-15 | Lost |
| 1003 | 913 | 63% | 2022-01-30 | Won |
| 1231 | 1179 | 57% | 2022-01-20 | Lost |
| 879 | 956 | 39% | 2021-10-26 | Tied |
| 1208 | 1208 | 50% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1029.2 vs 1019.5 has a 51.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).