Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (13 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 15
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2026-03-01 | Won |
| 986 | 986 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Won |
| 939 | 948 | 49% | 2023-06-17 | Lost |
| 995 | 897 | 64% | 2023-02-07 | Won |
| 1117 | 1191 | 40% | 2022-10-02 | Won |
| 1099 | 988 | 65% | 2022-09-12 | Lost |
| 1099 | 988 | 65% | 2022-09-08 | Won |
| 918 | 909 | 51% | 2022-03-27 | Won |
| 909 | 1024 | 34% | 2022-02-15 | Lost |
| 1041 | 898 | 69% | 2022-01-30 | Won |
| 1331 | 1059 | 83% | 2022-01-20 | Lost |
| 879 | 873 | 51% | 2021-10-26 | Tied |
| 1209 | 1215 | 49% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1040.2 vs 1004.5 has a 55.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).