Three Bars of Chocolate
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (13 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 15
Defender wins (German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2026-03-01 | | Won |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2024-11-17 | | Won |
| 984 | 1149 | 28% | 2023-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 962 | 74% | 2023-02-07 | | Won |
| 1182 | 1000 | 74% | 2022-10-02 | | Won |
| 977 | 999 | 47% | 2022-09-12 | | Lost |
| 977 | 999 | 47% | 2022-09-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 891 | 65% | 2022-03-27 | | Won |
| 891 | 1009 | 34% | 2022-02-15 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 913 | 67% | 2022-01-30 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2022-01-20 | | Lost |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2021-10-26 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1252 | 19% | 2021-03-19 | | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1014.9 vs 1026.5 has a 48.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).