Loosening the Noose
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (11 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 17
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2026-03-22 | | Won |
| 1051 | 1021 | 54% | 2025-12-22 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-03-18 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1095 | 46% | 2025-03-05 | | Won |
| 1154 | 1289 | 31% | 2024-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1076 | 1242 | 28% | 2023-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 979 | 64% | 2023-07-06 | | Won |
| 851 | 1042 | 25% | 2022-10-22 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 969 | 56% | 2022-08-27 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2022-07-06 | | Lost |
| 949 | 780 | 73% | 2022-03-25 | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1038 vs 1057.8 has a 47.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).