Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (26 on the archive and 54 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (German): 37
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1013 | 1126 | 34% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1182 | 881 | 85% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1032 | 1031 | 50% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1117 | 37% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1035 | 47% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1174 | 1163 | 52% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1047 | 990 | 58% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1213 | 893 | 86% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1098 | 38% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1052 | 1131 | 39% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1122 | 1136 | 48% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 965 | 1014 | 43% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 945 | 56% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1153 | 1216 | 41% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1282 | 896 | 90% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1121 | 1340 | 22% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1030 | 1041 | 48% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 997 | 1059 | 41% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 999 | 1340 | 12% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1419 | 1047 | 89% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1100 | 1021 | 61% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 734 | 1282 | 4% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1213 | 945 | 82% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1282 | 734 | 96% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1095.3 vs 1065.9 has a 54.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).