Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (27 on the archive and 55 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (German): 39
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 1147 | 34% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1202 | 881 | 86% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1029 | 958 | 60% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1249 | 35% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1084 | 47% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1035 | 50% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 997 | 991 | 51% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1228 | 894 | 87% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1084 | 40% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1045 | 1130 | 38% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1123 | 1154 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 967 | 1019 | 43% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 1098 | 35% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1042 | 1170 | 32% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1217 | 896 | 86% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1123 | 1274 | 30% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1039 | 1027 | 52% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 991 | 1040 | 43% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 999 | 1274 | 17% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1423 | 1018 | 91% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1100 | 1018 | 62% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 757 | 1217 | 7% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1228 | 991 | 80% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1217 | 757 | 93% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1274 | 1135 | 69% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1088.7 vs 1068.6 has a 52.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).