Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (22 on the archive and 50 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 36
Defender wins (German): 32
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1033 | 1035 | 50% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1127 | 1121 | 51% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1045 | 991 | 58% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1177 | 899 | 83% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 996 | 1100 | 35% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1052 | 1131 | 39% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1107 | 1137 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 940 | 1005 | 41% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 990 | 972 | 53% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1176 | 1242 | 41% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1275 | 912 | 89% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1122 | 1329 | 23% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 988 | 1066 | 39% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 1056 | 1008 | 57% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 999 | 1329 | 13% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1416 | 1029 | 90% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1098 | 1044 | 58% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 745 | 1275 | 5% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1177 | 972 | 76% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1275 | 745 | 95% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1329 | 1096 | 79% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1095.1 vs 1071.8 has a 53.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).