Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (27 on the archive and 55 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (German): 39
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 1147 | 33% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1194 | 880 | 86% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1028 | 950 | 61% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1263 | 33% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1032 | 54% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1035 | 47% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1173 | 1169 | 51% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1008 | 992 | 52% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1243 | 894 | 88% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1095 | 38% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1024 | 1130 | 35% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1123 | 1154 | 46% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 967 | 1063 | 37% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1092 | 40% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 933 | 58% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1052 | 1180 | 32% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1256 | 900 | 89% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1123 | 1253 | 32% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1068 | 970 | 64% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 980 | 1040 | 41% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 999 | 1253 | 19% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1423 | 1018 | 91% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1100 | 982 | 66% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 756 | 1256 | 5% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1243 | 980 | 82% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1256 | 756 | 95% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1253 | 1157 | 63% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1093.6 vs 1058.3 has a 55.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).