Breakthrough in the Arctic
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 86 (27 on the archive and 59 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 42
Defender wins (German): 40
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1068 | 1174 | 35% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1227 | 870 | 89% | 2025-11-28 | Won |
| 1075 | 1015 | 59% | 2025-11-28 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1263 | 33% | 2025-09-26 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1036 | 50% | 2025-09-22 | Lost |
| 982 | 1035 | 42% | 2025-03-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 2024-08-10 | Lost |
| 1032 | 993 | 56% | 2024-05-11 | Won |
| 1169 | 894 | 83% | 2024-03-04 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1094 | 41% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 969 | 1130 | 28% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1120 | 1153 | 45% | 2024-01-12 | Lost |
| 966 | 1068 | 36% | 2023-12-29 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 967 | 53% | 2023-07-28 | Won |
| 1053 | 1220 | 28% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 1220 | 900 | 86% | 2023-07-08 | Won |
| 1127 | 1215 | 38% | 2023-06-10 | Tied |
| 1172 | 907 | 82% | 2023-03-22 | Won |
| 987 | 1021 | 45% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1017 | 1215 | 24% | 2023-03-17 | Lost |
| 1430 | 1018 | 91% | 2023-03-07 | Won |
| 1101 | 999 | 64% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 750 | 1220 | 6% | 2023-02-22 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1174 | 49% | 2023-02-16 | Lost |
| 1220 | 750 | 94% | 2023-02-13 | Won |
| 1215 | 1193 | 53% | 2023-01-11 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1091.2 vs 1066.1 has a 53.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).