Polka's Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25 (11 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 13
Defender wins (French): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1227 | 1042 | 74% | 2026-07-25 | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2026-07-02 | Won |
| 909 | 928 | 47% | 2026-03-14 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1208 | 44% | 2025-10-17 | Won |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2025-10-11 | Won |
| 925 | 1051 | 33% | 2025-10-04 | Lost |
| 925 | 1051 | 33% | 2025-10-04 | Lost |
| 890 | 1034 | 30% | 2025-05-27 | Lost |
| 1076 | 968 | 65% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 779 | 996 | 22% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 965 | 1045 | 39% | 2025-04-14 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1012.4 vs 1050 has a 44.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).