Polka's Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19 (9 on the archive and 10 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 7
Defender wins (French): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 904 | 890 | 52% | 2026-03-14 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1208 | 50% | 2025-10-17 | Won |
| 1056 | 1056 | 50% | 2025-10-11 | Won |
| 933 | 1068 | 31% | 2025-10-04 | Lost |
| 933 | 1068 | 31% | 2025-10-04 | Lost |
| 890 | 1034 | 30% | 2025-05-27 | Lost |
| 1170 | 968 | 76% | 2025-05-08 | Won |
| 780 | 999 | 22% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 884 | 1053 | 27% | 2025-04-14 | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 973.1 vs 1038.2 has a 40.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).