Polka's Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 12
Attacker wins (German): 5
Defender wins (French): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2026-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1154 | 1034 | 67% | 2026-07-25 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2026-07-02 | | Won |
| 872 | 979 | 35% | 2026-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1230 | 1000 | 79% | 2025-10-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2025-10-11 | | Won |
| 927 | 1040 | 34% | 2025-10-04 | | Lost |
| 927 | 1040 | 34% | 2025-10-04 | | Lost |
| 914 | 1000 | 38% | 2025-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 968 | 74% | 2025-05-08 | | Won |
| 780 | 949 | 27% | 2025-05-01 | | Lost |
| 904 | 1069 | 28% | 2025-04-14 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1006.4 vs 1027.9 has a 46.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).