Polka's Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 11
Attacker wins (German): 5
Defender wins (French): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1170 | 1043 | 68% | 2026-07-25 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2026-07-02 | | Won |
| 904 | 967 | 41% | 2026-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2025-10-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2025-10-11 | | Won |
| 926 | 1038 | 34% | 2025-10-04 | | Lost |
| 926 | 1038 | 34% | 2025-10-04 | | Lost |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2025-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 968 | 75% | 2025-05-08 | | Won |
| 780 | 977 | 24% | 2025-05-01 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1045 | 39% | 2025-04-14 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1017.5 vs 1027.5 has a 48.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).