First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 55 (15 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 28
Defender wins (French): 25
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1243 | 1243 | 50% | 2026-06-28 | Won |
| 971 | 1017 | 43% | 2026-05-01 | Won |
| 1077 | 1215 | 31% | 2026-04-11 | Won |
| 1219 | 1228 | 49% | 2026-04-06 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1215 | 48% | 2026-03-26 | Won |
| 1219 | 1036 | 74% | 2026-03-21 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1117 | 39% | 2026-03-18 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1039 | 65% | 2026-03-13 | Won |
| 937 | 942 | 49% | 2026-03-08 | Won |
| 1003 | 1253 | 19% | 2026-03-06 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1151 | 50% | 2026-02-20 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1045 | 76% | 2026-01-30 | Won |
| 1127 | 1180 | 42% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1040 | 1052 | 48% | 2025-10-19 | Won |
| 986 | 945 | 56% | 2024-10-07 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1106.7 vs 1111.9 has a 49.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).