First Dance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (25 on the archive and 52 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 38
Defender wins (French): 35
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 4
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1194 | 1000 | 75% | 2026-10-12 | | Won |
| 1065 | 1020 | 56% | 2026-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 975 | 55% | 2026-10-03 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1229 | 22% | 2026-08-20 | | Lost |
| 872 | 979 | 35% | 2026-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1292 | 1174 | 66% | 2026-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2026-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1174 | 1000 | 73% | 2026-07-24 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2026-07-03 | A | Lost |
| 1033 | 1026 | 51% | 2026-07-03 | A | Lost |
| 1189 | 1000 | 75% | 2026-06-28 | | Won |
| 933 | 1017 | 38% | 2026-05-01 | | Won |
| 1149 | 1000 | 70% | 2026-04-11 | A | Won |
| 1138 | 1240 | 36% | 2026-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1193 | 1000 | 75% | 2026-03-26 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1027 | 65% | 2026-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1020 | 1121 | 36% | 2026-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1095 | 46% | 2026-03-13 | | Won |
| 922 | 920 | 50% | 2026-03-08 | | Won |
| 959 | 1253 | 16% | 2026-03-06 | A | Lost |
| 1000 | 1157 | 29% | 2026-02-20 | | Lost |
| 1189 | 1069 | 67% | 2026-01-30 | | Won |
| 1196 | 1010 | 74% | 2025-12-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2025-10-19 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-10-07 | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1069.2 vs 1055.7 has a 51.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).