To the Square
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 132 (25 on the archive and 107 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 72
Defender wins (German): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1200 | 24% | 2025-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2021-12-13 | | Won |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2021-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 1057 | 66% | 2020-01-12 | | Won |
| 973 | 1134 | 28% | 2019-07-29 | | Won |
| 987 | 1052 | 41% | 2018-12-06 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2018-02-15 | | Lost |
| 929 | 1074 | 30% | 2015-12-15 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 929 | 70% | 2015-07-24 | | Won |
| 1196 | 1000 | 76% | 2014-12-28 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2012-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1187 | 41% | 2011-09-20 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2011-09-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2011-03-05 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2010-05-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2009-08-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2009-07-26 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2006-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2005-11-26 | | Won |
| 1057 | 988 | 60% | 2005-01-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2002-06-22 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2001-06-02 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 1998-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 1994-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 1992-04-29 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1037.4 vs 1048.7 has a 48.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).