On the Kokoda Trail
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 142 (23 on the archive and 119 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 92
Defender wins (Australian): 50
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1035 | 1013 | 53% | 2022-01-25 | | Won |
| 973 | 1315 | 12% | 2021-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1017 | 51% | 2019-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2018-10-02 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-06-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2017-04-11 | | Lost |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2017-03-21 | | Won |
| 1021 | 1202 | 26% | 2016-02-15 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1102 | 40% | 2015-12-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 947 | 58% | 2015-08-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2012-09-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2011-02-19 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2010-01-25 | | Won |
| 1215 | 1060 | 71% | 2006-10-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2006-10-26 | | Won |
| 1046 | 1037 | 51% | 2004-07-10 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2001-01-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2001-01-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 1998-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1139 | 31% | 1995-01-28 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 1993-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 1993-03-28 | | Won |
| 1070 | 1000 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1036.6 vs 1069.9 has a 45.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).