Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68
Attacker wins (German): 29
Defender wins (French): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1049 | 986 | 59% | 2025-11-10 | Won |
| 1075 | 1058 | 52% | 2025-11-05 | Lost |
| 950 | 950 | 50% | 2021-12-15 | Lost |
| 1186 | 984 | 76% | 2021-06-16 | Won |
| 981 | 984 | 50% | 2021-01-23 | Won |
| 1013 | 1028 | 48% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 974 | 946 | 54% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 904 | 889 | 52% | 2020-10-18 | Won |
| 999 | 1013 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 984 | 948 | 55% | 2020-04-10 | Lost |
| 1046 | 997 | 57% | 2020-03-10 | Won |
| 1082 | 1211 | 32% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 961 | 971 | 49% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1101 | 930 | 73% | 2020-02-13 | Won |
| 1100 | 1019 | 61% | 2019-09-08 | Won |
| 1077 | 989 | 62% | 2017-12-15 | Won |
| 875 | 846 | 54% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 1250 | 1116 | 68% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1269 | 21% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 919 | 897 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost |
| 950 | 1031 | 39% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 1115 | 953 | 72% | 2015-11-11 | Won |
| 1038 | 1017 | 53% | 2015-10-20 | Won |
| 1051 | 975 | 61% | 2014-12-12 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1132 | 41% | 2014-11-07 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1192 | 35% | 2014-11-06 | Lost |
| 1125 | 984 | 69% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1125 | 984 | 69% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1221 | 33% | 2014-09-02 | Won |
| 1086 | 951 | 69% | 2014-07-05 | Won |
| 1070 | 1101 | 46% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 862 | 1063 | 24% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 892 | 1063 | 27% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1070 | 55% | 2013-02-18 | Won |
| 953 | 984 | 46% | 2012-12-30 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1251 | 39% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1012 | 1023 | 48% | 2011-07-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1027 | 52% | 2010-10-10 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1156 | 40% | 2010-08-30 | Won |
| 1046 | 1019 | 54% | 2010-06-26 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1082 | 55% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1019 | 983 | 55% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 988 | 971 | 52% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1072 | 46% | 2010-03-06 | Lost |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won |
| 984 | 1082 | 36% | 2010-01-25 | Lost |
| 984 | 1100 | 34% | 2009-11-13 | Won |
| 919 | 1138 | 22% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 984 | 989 | 49% | 2009-02-09 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1228 | 28% | 2009-01-30 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2009-01-11 | Lost |
| 984 | 920 | 59% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1117 | 37% | 2007-04-11 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1026 | 54% | 2006-10-15 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1420 | 30% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1101 | 44% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1046 | 52% | 2006-02-13 | Lost |
| 1188 | 1081 | 65% | 2001-09-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2001-04-27 | Won |
| 1109 | 1015 | 63% | 2000-12-16 | Won |
| 1048 | 1082 | 45% | 2000-03-21 | Won |
| 976 | 948 | 54% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 1044 | 1125 | 39% | 1998-05-23 | Won |
| 1065 | 1250 | 26% | 1998-04-24 | Won |
| 1250 | 909 | 88% | 1998-04-11 | Won |
| 1041 | 832 | 77% | 1997-01-05 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1101 | 61% | 1995-08-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 1177 | 18% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1046.9 vs 1038.1 has a 51.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).