Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 417 (73 on the archive and 344 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 208
Defender wins (French): 209
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1117 | 1000 | 66% | 2026-04-01 | Won | |
| 1049 | 1038 | 52% | 2025-11-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2025-11-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2021-12-15 | Lost | |
| 1205 | 1000 | 76% | 2021-06-16 | Won | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-01-23 | Won | |
| 1028 | 1002 | 54% | 2020-11-13 | Lost | |
| 974 | 932 | 56% | 2020-11-10 | Lost | |
| 928 | 909 | 53% | 2020-10-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 947 | 58% | 2020-04-10 | Lost | |
| 1040 | 980 | 59% | 2020-03-10 | Won | |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-03-07 | Won | |
| 961 | 1011 | 43% | 2020-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1099 | 987 | 66% | 2020-02-13 | Won | |
| 1146 | 1034 | 66% | 2019-09-08 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1035 | 47% | 2017-12-15 | Won | |
| 865 | 1000 | 31% | 2017-11-17 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 1116 | 70% | 2017-11-11 | Lost | |
| 1063 | 1275 | 23% | 2017-08-12 | Lost | |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1030 | 39% | 2016-05-01 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 961 | 73% | 2015-11-11 | Won | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2015-10-20 | Won | |
| 1055 | 952 | 64% | 2014-12-12 | Lost | |
| 1043 | 1132 | 37% | 2014-11-07 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 1202 | 45% | 2014-11-06 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2014-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2014-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1099 | 1187 | 38% | 2014-09-02 | Won | |
| 1070 | 951 | 66% | 2014-07-05 | Won | |
| 1067 | 1101 | 45% | 2013-10-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1150 | 30% | 2013-09-09 | Lost | |
| 1150 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-08-26 | Won | |
| 862 | 1071 | 23% | 2013-06-09 | Lost | |
| 891 | 1071 | 26% | 2013-06-09 | Lost | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-02-18 | Won | |
| 961 | 973 | 48% | 2012-12-30 | Lost | |
| 1181 | 1000 | 74% | 2012-10-03 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1023 | 49% | 2011-07-08 | Lost | |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2010-10-10 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2010-08-30 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2010-06-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2010-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2010-03-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2010-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1043 | 44% | 2010-03-06 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won | |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2010-01-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1146 | 30% | 2009-11-13 | Won | |
| 906 | 1000 | 37% | 2009-06-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2009-02-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2009-01-30 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2009-01-11 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 915 | 62% | 2008-09-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2007-04-11 | Lost | |
| 1156 | 1055 | 64% | 2006-10-15 | Lost | |
| 1219 | 1435 | 22% | 2006-09-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2006-04-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2006-02-13 | Lost | |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2004-07-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2001-09-29 | Won | |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2001-04-27 | Won | |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2000-12-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2000-03-21 | Won | |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2000-02-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 1998-11-14 | Won | |
| 1063 | 1134 | 40% | 1998-05-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 1998-04-24 | Won | |
| 1263 | 916 | 88% | 1998-04-11 | Won | |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 1997-01-05 | Lost | |
| 1100 | 1102 | 50% | 1995-08-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1102 | 36% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1039.9 vs 1039.4 has a 50.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).