One Down, Two to Go
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 114 (22 on the archive and 92 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 59
Defender wins (Russian): 54
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 726 | 960 | 21% | 2026-03-18 | Lost |
| 1256 | 756 | 95% | 2025-08-25 | Won |
| 1008 | 858 | 70% | 2024-09-14 | Won |
| 1090 | 1198 | 35% | 2024-03-01 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1219 | 23% | 2023-04-07 | Won |
| 1068 | 1019 | 57% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-04-03 | Won |
| 1068 | 1108 | 44% | 2019-05-26 | Won |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1007 | 78% | 2014-08-25 | Won |
| 1114 | 1051 | 59% | 2013-11-18 | Lost |
| 1058 | 694 | 89% | 2013-09-14 | Won |
| 1101 | 916 | 74% | 2012-03-30 | Won |
| 1228 | 1005 | 78% | 2007-07-07 | Won |
| 1253 | 1021 | 79% | 2006-09-24 | Won |
| 1009 | 1095 | 38% | 2005-07-14 | Lost |
| 969 | 1068 | 36% | 2003-09-06 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2003-02-04 | Won |
| 613 | 1101 | 6% | 2003-01-12 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1002 | 60% | 2002-05-08 | Lost |
| 1292 | 1263 | 54% | 2000-02-21 | Lost |
| 1012 | 893 | 66% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1061.7 vs 1018.5 has a 56.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).