One Down, Two to Go
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 113 (22 on the archive and 92 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 59
Defender wins (Russian): 54
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 767 | 933 | 28% | 2026-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1258 | 732 | 95% | 2025-08-25 | | Won |
| 1028 | 833 | 75% | 2024-09-14 | D | Won |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2024-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2023-04-07 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2020-05-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | 2020-04-03 | | Won |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2019-05-26 | | Won |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2016-03-29 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2014-08-25 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1039 | 63% | 2013-11-18 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 695 | 91% | 2013-09-14 | | Won |
| 1101 | 916 | 74% | 2012-03-30 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2007-07-07 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1151 | 60% | 2006-09-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1096 | 37% | 2005-07-14 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1074 | 35% | 2003-09-06 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2003-02-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2003-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1073 | 1000 | 60% | 2002-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2000-02-21 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1064.9 vs 1001.3 has a 59.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).