First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (21 on the archive and 61 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 45
Defender wins (Free French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 995 | 1048 | 42% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 945 | 1025 | 39% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 889 | 735 | 71% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 1016 | 1277 | 18% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1226 | 1098 | 68% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1118 | 694 | 92% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 906 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1277 | 20% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1014 | 70% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 977 | 1037 | 41% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1059 | 1064 | 49% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1036 | 50% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1115 | 866 | 81% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1186 | 954 | 79% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1016 | 1186 | 27% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1090 | 830 | 82% | | Won |
| 1029 | 1090 | 41% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1040.8 vs 1019 has a 53.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).