Crossing the Gniloi Tikitsch
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 110 (14 on the archive and 96 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (Russian): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1182 | 1073 | 65% | 2024-12-30 | | Won |
| 1075 | 964 | 65% | 2023-12-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2021-05-03 | | Lost |
| 1140 | 982 | 71% | 2021-03-27 | | Won |
| 1140 | 982 | 71% | 2021-03-20 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2020-11-01 | | Won |
| 1122 | 1156 | 45% | 2003-08-30 | | Won |
| 1122 | 1156 | 45% | 2003-04-25 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1023 | 47% | 2003-02-23 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2002-01-26 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1120 | 35% | 2001-12-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 927 | 60% | 1998-05-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 1996-09-26 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 1994-07-18 | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1096.4 vs 1053 has a 56.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).