The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 91 (16 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 52
Defender wins (American): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1073 | 1073 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1015 | 52% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 857 | 1007 | 30% | 2023-10-13 | Won |
| 1144 | 991 | 71% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1027 | 1041 | 48% | 2006-12-02 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1256 | 54% | 2004-04-25 | Lost |
| 982 | 1159 | 27% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 987 | 1068 | 39% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1130 | 54% | 2002-01-17 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1048 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1283 | 25% | 1999-05-02 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1124 | 71% | 1998-10-25 | Won |
| 866 | 1068 | 24% | 1998-09-06 | Lost |
| 778 | 1283 | 5% | 1997-10-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1029 | 50% | | Won |
| 1029 | 830 | 76% | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1040.8 vs 1087.8 has a 43.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).