The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (10 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 50
Defender wins (American): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1116 | 1116 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1023 | 50% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 861 | 1046 | 26% | 2023-10-13 | Won |
| 1132 | 959 | 73% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1027 | 1037 | 49% | 2006-12-02 | Lost |
| 959 | 1136 | 27% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 1136 | 1147 | 48% | 2002-01-17 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1048 | 47% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | | Won |
| 1117 | 847 | 83% | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1051.9 vs 1047.6 has a 50.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).