The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (17 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 52
Defender wins (American): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1030 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1008 | 54% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 841 | 1038 | 24% | 2023-10-13 | Won |
| 1143 | 1092 | 57% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1168 | 1150 | 53% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1036 | 49% | 2006-12-02 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1257 | 51% | 2004-04-25 | Lost |
| 982 | 1109 | 32% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 987 | 1060 | 40% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 1109 | 1122 | 48% | 2002-01-17 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1048 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1263 | 27% | 1999-05-02 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1126 | 69% | 1998-10-25 | Won |
| 866 | 1060 | 25% | 1998-09-06 | Lost |
| 763 | 1263 | 5% | 1997-10-11 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | | Won |
| 1078 | 833 | 80% | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1044.6 vs 1092.5 has a 43.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).