The Waterhole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (17 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 52
Defender wins (American): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2025-05-25 | Lost |
| 1099 | 943 | 71% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 841 | 1040 | 24% | 2023-10-13 | Won |
| 1131 | 962 | 73% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1174 | 1149 | 54% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1036 | 49% | 2006-12-02 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1257 | 51% | 2004-04-25 | Lost |
| 982 | 1159 | 27% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 987 | 1060 | 40% | 2002-01-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1122 | 55% | 2002-01-17 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1048 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1263 | 27% | 1999-05-02 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1126 | 69% | 1998-10-25 | Won |
| 866 | 1060 | 25% | 1998-09-06 | Lost |
| 769 | 1263 | 6% | 1997-10-11 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Won |
| 1036 | 834 | 76% | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1042.6 vs 1078.9 has a 44.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).