High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 155 (24 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 64
Defender wins (German): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1024 | 44% | 2024-05-13 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1123 | 38% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 1007 | 1037 | 46% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 947 | 49% | 2014-05-13 | Won |
| 1106 | 1134 | 46% | 2014-02-01 | Won |
| 1075 | 984 | 63% | 2012-07-18 | Lost |
| 927 | 958 | 46% | 2010-09-18 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1061 | 61% | 2008-09-20 | Lost |
| 978 | 1101 | 33% | 2008-04-04 | Lost |
| 996 | 980 | 52% | 2005-11-29 | Won |
| 1077 | 1061 | 52% | 2005-11-27 | Won |
| 1036 | 953 | 62% | 2005-09-25 | Won |
| 1049 | 1101 | 43% | 2005-04-30 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1101 | 66% | 2003-04-25 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1101 | 42% | 2003-04-05 | Won |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2002-04-20 | Won |
| 1057 | 1060 | 50% | 2001-12-07 | Won |
| 1023 | 1092 | 40% | 2001-09-16 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1197 | 45% | 2001-05-05 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1264 | 53% | 2001-01-21 | Lost |
| 1101 | 993 | 65% | 2000-12-02 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1190 | 43% | 2000-04-20 | Won |
| 1140 | 727 | 92% | 2000-04-11 | Won |
| 1019 | 1031 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1061.1 vs 1050.1 has a 51.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).