High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 154 (23 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 64
Defender wins (German): 90
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 950 | 1011 | 41% | 2024-05-13 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1123 | 43% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 1015 | 1027 | 48% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 954 | 48% | 2014-05-13 | Won |
| 1087 | 1078 | 51% | 2014-02-01 | Won |
| 1063 | 984 | 61% | 2012-07-18 | Lost |
| 927 | 1008 | 39% | 2010-09-18 | Lost |
| 945 | 1039 | 37% | 2008-09-20 | Lost |
| 977 | 1100 | 33% | 2008-04-04 | Lost |
| 1020 | 979 | 56% | 2005-11-29 | Won |
| 1079 | 1039 | 56% | 2005-11-27 | Won |
| 1041 | 953 | 62% | 2005-09-25 | Won |
| 1047 | 1100 | 42% | 2005-04-30 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1100 | 66% | 2003-04-25 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1100 | 44% | 2003-04-05 | Won |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2002-04-20 | Won |
| 1057 | 1068 | 48% | 2001-12-07 | Won |
| 1091 | 1092 | 50% | 2001-09-16 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1196 | 47% | 2001-05-05 | Lost |
| 1100 | 890 | 77% | 2000-12-02 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1189 | 45% | 2000-04-20 | Won |
| 1151 | 739 | 91% | 2000-04-11 | Won |
| 1010 | 1068 | 42% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1048 vs 1035.6 has a 51.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).