Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 118 (24 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 58
Defender wins (French): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 1006 | 58% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1151 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1196 | 1065 | 68% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1110 | 47% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1052 | 55% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1245 | 1044 | 76% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1043 | 1036 | 51% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 941 | 939 | 50% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 941 | 959 | 47% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 871 | 982 | 35% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 871 | 1094 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1314 | 1110 | 76% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1122 | 1050 | 60% | 2010-04-24 | Won |
| 1118 | 1101 | 52% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1016 | 1182 | 28% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 1064 | 1042 | 53% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 1008 | 1152 | 30% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 927 | 1045 | 34% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1090 | 68% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1062.6 vs 1063.8 has a 49.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).