Ultimate Treachery
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 122 (28 on the archive and 94 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 60
Defender wins (French): 62
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1098 | 1020 | 61% | 2020-10-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1152 | 59% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-14 | Lost |
| 1201 | 1077 | 67% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1058 | 55% | 2019-06-28 | Won |
| 1040 | 1027 | 52% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1024 | 57% | 2018-05-18 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1173 | 50% | 2018-04-10 | Won |
| 949 | 949 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1248 | 1081 | 72% | 2017-07-28 | Won |
| 1303 | 1283 | 53% | 2017-07-28 | Lost |
| 1283 | 954 | 87% | 2017-06-17 | Won |
| 1044 | 1045 | 50% | 2017-05-20 | Won |
| 959 | 930 | 54% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 959 | 960 | 50% | 2015-11-06 | Won |
| 870 | 982 | 34% | 2012-09-02 | Won |
| 870 | 1094 | 22% | 2012-01-06 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1111 | 69% | 2011-10-29 | Won |
| 1123 | 1068 | 58% | 2010-04-24 | Won |
| 1097 | 1143 | 43% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1283 | 35% | 2009-10-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1204 | 28% | 2007-09-08 | Won |
| 1008 | 1248 | 20% | 2006-02-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1041 | 55% | 2004-03-20 | Won |
| 1008 | 1140 | 32% | 2003-10-08 | Lost |
| 1283 | 962 | 86% | 2003-07-11 | Won |
| 927 | 1072 | 30% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1029 | 75% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1092.8 vs 1075.1 has a 52.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).