The Prelude to Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 13
Attacker wins (Russian): 7
Defender wins (German): 6
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2024-12-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2024-07-07 | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1019 | 52% | 2024-01-17 | D | Won |
| 1218 | 1000 | 78% | 2019-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2012-05-28 | | Won |
| 925 | 1099 | 27% | 2012-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 953 | 76% | 2009-10-18 | | Won |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2009-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 915 | 62% | 2009-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2007-02-18 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2007-02-14 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1018 | 87% | 2006-12-06 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-09-06 | | Won |
| 1073 | 1071 | 50% | | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1064.5 vs 1021.9 has a 56.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).