The Prelude to Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 89 (13 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 50
Defender wins (German): 38
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 976 | 986 | 49% | 2024-12-31 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-07-07 | Lost |
| 1054 | 995 | 58% | 2024-01-17 | Won |
| 1217 | 964 | 81% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1069 | 42% | 2012-05-28 | Won |
| 925 | 1098 | 27% | 2012-03-03 | Lost |
| 1152 | 953 | 76% | 2009-10-18 | Won |
| 980 | 1105 | 33% | 2009-02-18 | Lost |
| 980 | 920 | 59% | 2009-01-16 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1189 | 35% | 2007-02-18 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2007-02-14 | Won |
| 1025 | 912 | 66% | 2006-09-06 | Won |
| 1072 | 1032 | 56% | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1051.2 vs 1031.2 has a 52.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).