The Prelude to Spring
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (12 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 37
Defender wins (German): 50
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2024-07-07 | Lost |
| 948 | 1082 | 32% | 2024-01-17 | Won |
| 1220 | 964 | 81% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1071 | 41% | 2012-05-28 | Won |
| 966 | 1100 | 32% | 2012-03-03 | Lost |
| 1150 | 963 | 75% | 2009-10-18 | Won |
| 1060 | 1089 | 46% | 2009-02-18 | Lost |
| 1092 | 920 | 73% | 2009-01-16 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1013 | 50% | 2007-02-18 | Won |
| 1100 | 1096 | 51% | 2007-02-14 | Won |
| 1025 | 913 | 66% | 2006-09-06 | Won |
| 1090 | 1079 | 52% | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1063.5 vs 1031.4 has a 54.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).