The Valley of Death
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 102 (30 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian / German): 41
Defender wins (Russian): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1057 | 1000 | 58% | 2025-08-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2024-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1289 | 1138 | 70% | 2023-09-18 | | Won |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-08-14 | | Lost |
| 877 | 1102 | 21% | 2022-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2021-10-11 | | Won |
| 972 | 1040 | 40% | 2021-04-12 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1000 | 78% | 2020-10-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 2019-06-08 | | Won |
| 1230 | 1000 | 79% | 2019-01-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2018-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-04-29 | | Won |
| 1175 | 1000 | 73% | 2018-04-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2015-12-15 | | Lost |
| 1057 | 1000 | 58% | 2015-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2012-10-03 | | Won |
| 1163 | 1015 | 70% | 2012-06-26 | | Won |
| 1022 | 985 | 55% | 2011-02-10 | | Lost |
| 841 | 1022 | 26% | 2010-11-25 | | Lost |
| 1310 | 1080 | 79% | 2010-04-04 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1064 | 60% | 2010-02-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2009-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2009-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2009-08-22 | | Lost |
| 892 | 1059 | 28% | 2008-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1233 | 36% | 2008-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2008-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1183 | 43% | 2007-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2007-10-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2007-08-23 | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1059.2 vs 1053.9 has a 50.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).