The Valley of Death
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (30 on the archive and 71 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian / German): 40
Defender wins (Russian): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 1043 | 50% | 2025-08-11 | Won |
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2024-10-07 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1220 | 50% | 2023-09-18 | Won |
| 971 | 937 | 55% | 2022-08-14 | Lost |
| 904 | 1102 | 24% | 2022-06-20 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1072 | 40% | 2021-10-11 | Won |
| 986 | 1063 | 39% | 2021-04-12 | Won |
| 1218 | 1115 | 64% | 2020-10-16 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2019-06-08 | Won |
| 1191 | 1106 | 62% | 2019-01-02 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1160 | 47% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-04-29 | Won |
| 1174 | 1102 | 60% | 2018-04-09 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2015-12-15 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1046 | 50% | 2015-03-30 | Lost |
| 984 | 1065 | 39% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1192 | 1015 | 73% | 2012-06-26 | Won |
| 1022 | 985 | 55% | 2011-02-10 | Lost |
| 843 | 1022 | 26% | 2010-11-25 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1080 | 79% | 2010-04-04 | Won |
| 1133 | 1052 | 61% | 2010-02-12 | Won |
| 989 | 1101 | 34% | 2009-10-23 | Lost |
| 1101 | 989 | 66% | 2009-10-23 | Lost |
| 985 | 1010 | 46% | 2009-08-22 | Lost |
| 892 | 1018 | 33% | 2008-08-20 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2008-06-29 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1005 | 55% | 2008-01-13 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1085 | 57% | 2007-11-26 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1148 | 32% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1287 | 1234 | 58% | 2007-08-23 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1072.9 vs 1074.2 has a 49.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).