The Valley of Death
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 101 (30 on the archive and 71 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian / German): 40
Defender wins (Russian): 61
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 1043 | 50% | 2025-08-11 | Won |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2024-10-07 | Lost |
| 1256 | 1180 | 61% | 2023-09-18 | Won |
| 971 | 937 | 55% | 2022-08-14 | Lost |
| 903 | 1102 | 24% | 2022-06-20 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1072 | 46% | 2021-10-11 | Won |
| 986 | 1063 | 39% | 2021-04-12 | Won |
| 1217 | 1114 | 64% | 2020-10-16 | Lost |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2019-06-08 | Won |
| 1186 | 1104 | 62% | 2019-01-02 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1173 | 46% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2018-04-29 | Won |
| 1255 | 980 | 83% | 2018-04-09 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2015-12-15 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1046 | 50% | 2015-03-30 | Lost |
| 984 | 1049 | 41% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1192 | 1015 | 73% | 2012-06-26 | Won |
| 1022 | 986 | 55% | 2011-02-10 | Lost |
| 879 | 1022 | 31% | 2010-11-25 | Lost |
| 1303 | 1081 | 78% | 2010-04-04 | Won |
| 1132 | 1072 | 59% | 2010-02-12 | Won |
| 988 | 1101 | 34% | 2009-10-23 | Lost |
| 1101 | 988 | 66% | 2009-10-23 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1009 | 52% | 2009-08-22 | Lost |
| 892 | 1045 | 29% | 2008-08-20 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1228 | 37% | 2008-06-29 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2008-01-13 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1105 | 55% | 2007-11-26 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1147 | 36% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1287 | 1252 | 55% | 2007-08-23 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1080.8 vs 1072.5 has a 51.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).