Ripples on the Pond
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 25
Attacker wins (American): 13
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1274 | 959 | 86% | 2025-01-29 | Won |
| 959 | 993 | 45% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 959 | 1023 | 41% | 2024-08-30 | Lost |
| 1189 | 959 | 79% | 2023-09-25 | Won |
| 1087 | 1056 | 54% | 2022-11-29 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 1008 | 980 | 54% | 2022-03-08 | Lost |
| 1427 | 925 | 95% | 2021-04-27 | Won |
| 925 | 1141 | 22% | 2021-04-13 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1427 | 51% | 2021-04-09 | Won |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-04-06 | Won |
| 969 | 1018 | 43% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1087 | 59% | 2020-09-29 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2020-07-07 | Lost |
| 1163 | 992 | 73% | 2020-06-07 | Won |
| 1137 | 1126 | 52% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 959 | 1046 | 38% | 2020-02-16 | Lost |
| 989 | 1004 | 48% | 2018-03-01 | Won |
| 1040 | 959 | 61% | 2017-12-21 | Lost |
| 877 | 899 | 47% | 2016-11-21 | Lost |
| 877 | 959 | 38% | 2016-09-05 | Tied |
| 1033 | 1094 | 41% | 2011-07-13 | Tied |
| 886 | 1003 | 34% | 2010-01-01 | Won |
| 1039 | 1045 | 49% | 2009-07-14 | Lost |
| 871 | 1019 | 30% | 2008-10-09 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1050 vs 1027.3 has a 53.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).