Fitzgerald's Fire
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (16 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 28
Defender wins (American): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2024-07-04 | Lost |
| 833 | 1159 | 13% | 2021-09-22 | Lost |
| 976 | 1000 | 47% | 2020-10-22 | Lost |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2016-08-03 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2016-06-28 | Lost |
| 1000 | 955 | 56% | 2016-03-13 | Lost |
| 1000 | 955 | 56% | 2016-03-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1000 | 48% | 2014-01-13 | Won |
| 1012 | 1003 | 51% | 2011-08-20 | Won |
| 1034 | 942 | 63% | 2011-08-12 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1127 | 50% | 2011-01-20 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1079 | 39% | 2011-01-09 | Won |
| 941 | 941 | 50% | 2009-07-05 | Lost |
| 988 | 1108 | 33% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 953 | 894 | 58% | 2008-09-27 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1064 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 992.9 vs 1014.2 has a 46.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).